With a broad upper level trough located west of the region, an upper level disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft moved over central North Carolina during peak heating. This resulted in scattered convection across the region, with one storm producing some isolated wind damage in Halifax County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
With a broad upper level trough located west of the region, an upper level disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft moved over central North Carolina during peak heating. This resulted in scattered convection across the region, with one storm producing some isolated wind damage in Halifax County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 8:05 PM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 905 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY... THROUGH TONIGHT: THE RISK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANYING A POCKET OF WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. A SECOND WEAKER MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS HAS HELPED FUEL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN... AND FOLLOWING THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER FLOW THESE SHOULD MOVE TO THE NE AND ENE INTO CENTRAL NC. THE STEADY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS HELPED KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70... YIELDING MODERATELY UNSTABLE MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG... WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AT 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITH A FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 25 KTS. BUT THE GRADUAL LOSS OF HEATING... AS WELL AS THE EVENTUAL DEPARTURE OF THE WEAK WRN-NC WAVE UP INTO VA AND DAMPENING IN FAVOR OF THE STRONGER MID MISS VALLEY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KY TONIGHT... SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW REDUCTION OF (ALREADY-SMALL) STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A NUMBER OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF-ARW. WILL DEPICT SCATTERED STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TREND TOWARD NO POPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR... ANY STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD STILL BE STRONG. EXPECT PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND CIRRUS OUT AHEAD OF THE MID MISS VALLEY WAVE. LOWS OF 67-72 STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND ARE IN LINE WITH THE PACE OF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. -GIH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK(20 METERS)...AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID WILL ROTATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z WED TO 00Z THU...LIKELY AUGMENTING VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS WITHIN THE JET DIVERGENCE REGION OF A 45KT AND 65KT MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TRAVERSING THE AREA. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...CAPE WILL BE AT PREMIUM...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM PER LATEST GFS...WITH MODELS DEPICTING MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION(2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE) FROM US 1 EAST. DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS COULD LIMIT AREAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BUT EXPECT STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE EAST TO HELP OVERCOME DRYING ALOFT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. THIS MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ALSO HOWEVER RESULT IN A GREATER RISK DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DOES DEVELOP. AS SUCH...SPC HAS AREAS FROM US 1 EAST IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK. THE SHORTWAVE VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO CLEAR BY 00Z...WITH TRAILING SFC FRONT SOON AFTERWARD. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THU WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MUCH LIKE TODAY...RANGING FROM MID 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ELSE. SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. -CBL && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... FOR THURSDAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM NY TO LA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CENTRAL NC REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL TYPE PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AS MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RATHER LIMITED (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES). HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IT STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL NC AND THE COAST. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MAYBE EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA). WITH MODELS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AT LEAST 30 KNOTS (ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY)...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ALSO...WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE REGION AND UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD (ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD)...WITH HIGH GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE REGION HAVE REMAINED OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL NC THUS FAR THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR KHKY MAY IMPACT KINT AND/OR KGSO BY 01-02Z...WITH MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT DWINDLING INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. OTHERWISE...MVFR PRE-DAWN MVFR VSBYS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF VCSH FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF...AND SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES MAY HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS AT KFAY AND KRWI. OUTLOOK... DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THU AND THU NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN US...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL SHORT TERM...KRR LONG TERM...KRR AVIATION...CBL/SMITH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 932 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151000- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 932 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG STORM OR TWO... PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL... IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF RALEIGH... BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. GIH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012
NCZ089-150100-
SAMPSON-
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SAMPSON COUNTY THROUGH 900
PM EDT...
AT 804 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF IVANHOE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HARRELLS.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
&&
LAT...LON 3461 7832 3467 7833 3470 7838 3477 7842
3497 7815 3489 7814 3474 7819 3472 7814
3472 7811 3471 7811 3468 7815 3458 7823
3457 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 231DEG 32KT 3463 7844
SECSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012
NCZ009>011-026-150315-
FRANKLIN-HALIFAX-VANCE-WARREN-
1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WARREN...VANCE...HALIFAX AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...
AT 1015 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
HENDERSON TO ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOUISBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
AFTON...MACON...LITTLETON....WARRENTON AND MIDDLEBURG.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 209 AND 233.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
&&
LAT...LON 3642 7769 3619 7798 3620 7800 3611 7807
3625 7850 3653 7846 3655 7845 3655 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 227DEG 16KT 3625 7820
22The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 99 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:22 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A couple of trees were blown down on Highway 158 between Littleton and Roanoke Rapids.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 411178.