A relatively small fire in Wilmington forced some evacuations, but was quickly contained.
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The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
A relatively small fire in Wilmington forced some evacuations, but was quickly contained.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 16, 2:42 PM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 342 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...COMBINATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MSAS ANALYSIS CLEARLY PAINTS THE PICTURE THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE IS RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH SW RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...AND BRIGHT SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS. WARMING IS DONE AT THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO PUSH WEST AS NOTED IN OBS AND BY CLEARING IN CU FIELD...INLAND WILL WARM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE COOLING DIURNALLY. THE CU THAT HAS DEVELOPED TODAY IS REACHING ABOUT 7KFT...THEN DRYING OUT AS EXPECTED DUE TO VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ONLY REAL CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS DETERMINING MIN TEMPS. S/SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FULL DECOUPLING IS UNLIKELY. AT THE COAST...WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL INCREASE NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEPS MINS AT OR ABOVE 60 MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THE COLD FRONT DROPS BEFORE IT STALLS...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE KEEPS IT WEST OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP WITH MOISTURE RETURN...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND SOME LINGERING WEAK SUBSIDENCE THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE. LATER IN THE DAY MOISTURE ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. WHILE SPC STILL HAS A SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTION TUE/TUE EVENING WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...SBCAPE WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT NOT A LOT OF SHEAR. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP BUT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LACKING. TUE MAY END UP BEING A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CU WITH A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST. 12Z NAM SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE SO FAVOR A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH HAS A WEAKER WAVE THAT STARTS TO OPEN UP LATER WED. THE SHORTWAVE...AND DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HELPS DRAG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER WED. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES CLOSE TO 1.50 INCH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS TO BE WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP THE NORTHERLY FLOW/OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A MARGINALLY WARMER DAY WED THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION. BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST AND THIS WILL DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL RAISE THE POPS TO CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS COMING CLOSER TO THE ECWMF 00 UTC SOLUTION AND IF THIS IS THE CASE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MAY BE TO LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE MID 70S THURSDAY TO NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY THE HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 70. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS. CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...STAYING SCATTERED AND MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE RESULTANT. A MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE CU FROM DEVELOPING MUCH. TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS WITH SCATTERED SKIES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG...BUT WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY ARE TOO STRONG...SCATTERED STRATUS A BETTER BET. TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE EDGING THIS WAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-SHORE WATERS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE...STATUS QUO FOR THE WATERS WITH 10-15 KTS SW WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS ARE PERSISTING IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE...WITH THE SPECTRUM CONSISTING OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SE SWELL AND A 3FT/4SEC SW WIND WAVE. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE INNER 5NM WHERE SOME 4 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEA BREEZE...WHICH MAY GUST TO 20 KTS OR MORE FOR A FEW HOURS. IN FACT...JMPN7 REPORTED 22KTS LAST HOUR. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD A SHORT DURATION SCEC MAY BE NECESSARY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING 1-3 FT AS WINDS EASE BACK TO SW AT 10-15 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGERING INTO WED BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WED NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE COLD FRONT STALLS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT STALLING WEST OF THE REGION. THIS KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW...SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SE WED...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND WIND DIRECTION...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE REGARDLESS OF THE DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH STALLED FRONT OVER THE REGION WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THURSDAY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL BY SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECT TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON SATURDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...HAWKINS AVIATION...43
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 327 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012 SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-171930- MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY- COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN- 327 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ087-096-099-105>110-171930- ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER- INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK- COASTAL BRUNSWICK- 327 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AMZ250-252-254-256-171930- SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM- CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM- LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM- MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM- 327 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 17
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
A wildfire occurred near the Louise Wells Cameron Art Museum, forcing evacuation of the museum and 15 homes. One shed caught fire. The fire was contained in about five hours, but smoldered for another two weeks. Approximately 60 acres were burned.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, April 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 379567.