A lingering surface trough and an approaching upper level disturbance triggered multiple severe thunderstorms across the Lower Hudson Valley and Long Island.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OKX wrote it up.
A lingering surface trough and an approaching upper level disturbance triggered multiple severe thunderstorms across the Lower Hudson Valley and Long Island.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 12:31 PM EST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 131 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER PA AND HEADING WNW - SO IDEA OF INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM W TO E APPEARS ON TRACK. STILL COULD SEE A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSTM AHEAD OF MAIN AREA OF ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT NEGATIVE VORTICITY /NVA/ ADVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST BY 21Z. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALREADY TO 2 INCHES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS...AND SHOULD INCREASE A BIT MORE DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING THETA E. THIS COUPLED WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WHICH ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. ONLY HAVE 15-25KT OF SHEAR FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SO GIVEN SKINNY CAPE AND NEAR- TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SOUNDINGS WOULD EXPECT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST OF STORMS COULD POTENTIAL CONTAIN SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH THE RISK OF THIS IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF THE MID TO UPPER 80S APPEARS MAINLY ON TRACK - THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAY IN LOWER 80S DUE TO MARINE/ELEVATION INFLUENCE GIVEN CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT WITH DECREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS AND THEREFORE DECREASING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED TO THIS TIME PERIOD WHEN THERE WILL BE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING PRESENT. FRONT SHOULD BE S OF THE AREA BY 12Z. MUCH MORE SUN EXPECTED ON MON WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 17-18C. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...SLIGHTLY COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SW FLOW COURTESY OF BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ALSO KEEP IT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. NYC WILL LIKELY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MON...BUT ITS STILL A THIRD PERIOD EVENT SO WILL HOLD OFF. DESPITE A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WARM MID LEVELS WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM RIDGE ALOFT WILL ENCAPSULATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE A POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA DESCENDS SE AND CARVES OUT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST MID TO LATE WEEK. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL ALSO SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WED AFT/EVE. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...HOT...MUGGY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR MON-WED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY MON AND TUE AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT. MODEL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING WITH A DRY MIXED LAYER. IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TUE-WED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR TUE. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST COMES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES....WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR TUE AND WED. MODELS...IN PARTICULAR...THE GFS AND NAM...DIFFER IN HOW MUCH MIXING THERE IS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN DEW POINTS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE NAM...WITH THE GFS NOTORIOUSLY HIGHER AND POOR AT MIXING DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE. A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED HERE. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...IN PARTICULAR NYC METRO. A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA WED AFT/EVE WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. DRIER...MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL TRACK EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDS. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 19Z...KSWF LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY A TSTM APPROACHING THE AIRFIELD. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS...WILL START TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT 21-22Z AT WESTERN/KNYC TERMINALS...AND A FEW HOURS LATER FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM 23Z-05Z AND IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...WILL CARRY IFR VSBYS IN TEMPO GROUPS. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR VSBYS TO BRIEFLY BE LOWER THAN THAT FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. WINDS GENERALLY W-SW AT 5-8 KT. LOCAL SEA BREEZES HAVE ALREADY TURNED WINDS SOUTH AT 8-12 KT AT SOME OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. ONE ISSUE FOR LATE TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR-IFR CONDS IN FOG. IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AT THE TERMINALS...MAINLY AWAY FROM KJFK/KLGA/KEWR...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DEPART UNTIL NW WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. FOR THOSE TERMINALS...FOG IS POSSIBLE. WILL NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE 12Z TAFS AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN. VFR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KT ON TAP FOR MONDAY. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. .WEDNESDAY...SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. MAINLY SW TO WSW FLOW 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS...AND 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS JUST BELOW 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NY BIGHT REGION AND NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WAVEWATCH SEAS APPEAR A LITTLE OVERDONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE CAPPED OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS THEREAFTER PRIMARILY 2 TO 4 FT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LOCALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... WHILE BASIN AVG QPF THROUGH TONIGHT RUNS FROM AROUND 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH...HIGHEST NW OF NYC AND LOWEST OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION GIVEN THE FORECAST NEAR-TROPICAL NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AS CONVECTION WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN CONVERTING AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO RAINFALL. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAM FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PROBABILITY/COVERAGE BOTH APPEAR TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...24 NEAR TERM...24/MALOIT SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JC HYDROLOGY...24/MALOIT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 454 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012 NYZ075-080-081-178-179-160945- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 454 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANY AREAS EXPERIENCING THIS COULD HAVE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCATION RECEIVES MORE THAN ONE BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-160945- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU- 454 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANY AREAS EXPERIENCING THIS COULD HAVE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCATION RECEIVES MORE THAN ONE BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-160945- LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM- 454 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012
NYZ067-151915-
ORANGE-
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012
...THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN
ORANGE COUNTY...
AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF BLOOMINGBURG...AND
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR...
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
LAT...LON 4155 7444 4159 7439 4160 7434 4164 7427
4163 7425 4161 7424 4159 7414 4161 7414
4161 7407 4159 7405 4159 7395 4154 7398
4149 7399 4145 7441
DSWSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012
CTZ005-NYZ068-152015-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-PUTNAM-
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES...
AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAHNESTOCK STATE PARK...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MAHOPAC...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR...IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS... AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
LAT...LON 4167 7351 4167 7352 4153 7354 4150 7390
4148 7395 4134 7385 4134 7381 4147 7334
4149 7337 4152 7339 4150 7344 4166 7349
DSWThe Albany radar (KENX), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:15 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees and wires were reported down around Montgomery, including along Goodwill and Baley Roads, Route 17K, and near Berea Town Park.
Lightning hit a house in Montgomery damaging a chimney.
A tree was reported down on Fairway Drive near Field Corners, NY.
Wires were reported down on Haviland Road.
Trees were reported down on North Country Road between Coventry Court and Old Field Lane.
A large tree limb was reported down on Falmouth Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 403310, 403311, 403290, 403291, 403292, 403293.