Monsoonal moisture plume over much of western and central portions of the state led to continued development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. Development of storms to the north of the Little Bear Fire burn scar led to flooding in portions of the scarred area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Monsoonal moisture plume over much of western and central portions of the state led to continued development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. Development of storms to the north of the Little Bear Fire burn scar led to flooding in portions of the scarred area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 10:51 AM MST, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1151 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS PRODUCING MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES...SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS....GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 35 OR 40KT AND SOME SMALL HAIL AT TIMES. FEWEST THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EAST AND DEVELOPING THERE A LITTLE LATER...STILL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE. STEERING FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE NORTH. RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH 09Z TO 12Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH INCREASED COVERAGE NORTHEAST. 05 && .PREV DISCUSSION...308 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012... THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY...AND IS ALREADY EXHIBITING A BIT OF A WESTWARD PUSH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ELONGATES AND SHIFTS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE PLUME...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS STRETCHING FROM THE GILA NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT DRYING COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS OBSERVED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL OBSERVE EVEN LESS STORMS...JUST ISOLATED WHERE TOWERING CUMULUS CAN MAKE USE OF THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO EXCEED YESTERDAY/S READINGS IN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER AS OF THIS WRITING DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE STILL PREVALENT IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF THIS CLOUD COVER DOES NOT BREAK UP BEFORE LATE MORNING...DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE STUNTED...AND CONVECTION COULD FIRE IN THE LATER HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON RATHER THAN EARLIER. HAVE SIDED A BIT ABOVE THE MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THESE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WITH HOPES THAT CLEARING WILL ENSUE BEFORE NOON. HAVE NOT HOISTED ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENSIONS...BUT INTERESTS IN GILA WILL STILL NEED TO EXPECT THAT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IT IS IMPRESSIVE HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A RE- ESTABLISHMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...RE-CENTERING INTO UTAH/NEVADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME VARIABILITY IN STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE GILA AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED STORMS AROUND...BUT THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ROLLING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED PASSAGE INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND IF A SIGNIFICANT MCS DEVELOPS IT MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF DRIVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN NM ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL INTRUSION...SWEEPING IT THROUGH MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. A SUBTLE...BUT SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS MONDAY. IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD TAKE SHAPE WITH MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE PROCESSES ADDING TO THE HEALTHY MOISTURE PROFILES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME STABILIZATION MAY TAKE PLACE INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER...AND THIS COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE INTERFACE OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD SEE A HEALTHY DOSE OF STORMS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR THE UTAH VICINITY THROUGH THIS POINT...AND AS WEDNESDAY AND THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK ARRIVE THE DEEPEST POCKET OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO SOUTHERN NM AND WAITING FOR THE HIGH TO GOVERN ITS NEXT DESTINATION. 52 .FIRE WEATHER... MAIN FEATURES MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON INCLUDE THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE IT CURRENTLY RESIDES...TO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALLOWS A SURFACE FRONT TO PLUNGE INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE AND INTO THE RGV BY MONDAY EVENING. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT IS IN CONTENTION WITH THE NAM FASTER...AND POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY AIDED...WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IT/S USUALLY SLOWER SELF...THOUGH IT DOES SEEM TO CATCH UP TO THE NAM ON MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MOVEMENT AND FOCUS OF STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST LIKELY WEST AND CENTRAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MORESO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORM MOTION WILL CHANGE BY SUNDAY AND DEFINITELY MONDAY...WITH CELLS GENERALLY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTHWEST. OCCASIONAL EAST WINDS INTO THE RGV SHOULD HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM CRATERING MUCH...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHETHER THE WIND IS DUE TO NEARBY CONVECTION OR IS DRIVEN BY THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. WITH THE HIGH CENTER PARKING OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS BY NEXT WEEK...THE DIRECT FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD TAPER OFF...THEREFORE A TREND TOWARDS LESS ACTIVE AND FEWER STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL...COULD MATERIALIZE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. DRYING COULD INCREASE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH CENTER MEANDERS INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...KEEPING THAT PART OF THE STATE UNDER WETTER CONDITIONS. FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 05
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 535 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012 NMZ501>540-081200- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 535 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM THE GILA WILDERNESS NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...NAMELY OVER AREAS RECENTLY SCARRED BY WILDFIRES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY OBSERVED FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE AT 1.888.386.7637 OR VIA THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ. 52
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A partial road collapse occurred along Old Bonito Lake Rd due to flash flood undercuts and encroachments. This collapse was located about 2 miles west of the intersection with State Road 37.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 382710.