Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 12, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
256 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES FRIDAY AS A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE BRINGS INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHERN
NEVADA. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN NYE AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
CURRENTLY...3 PM THURSDAY...SHOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN
DIMINISH TO ISOLATED COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTY...HITTING
SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES AS WELL AS EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY THIS EVENING. WITH MONSOON MOISTURE RAPIDLY SPREADING UP
INTO CENTRAL NEVADA...ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY HANGING ON LATE
THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING AGAIN IN THE MID-MORNING
HOURS...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TONIGHT. ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL EXPAND INTO NORTHERN LANDER AND
EUREKA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN ELKO
COUNTIES AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER NORTH. ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY AND WHITE
PINE COUNTY FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROP BY AROUND 10 DEGREES FRIDAY AS CLOUDS
SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SATURDAY IS LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. PW'S DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND 2/3'S
OR 3/4 OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY...HOWEVER LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MODERATE
IF NOT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. A RAPID DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FORECASTING THAT THE
PERSISTENT TROUGHING/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL GRADUALLY
SCOUR MONSOON MOISTURE OUT OF NEVADA NEXT WEEK. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA FOR SUNDAY...BUT DID NUDGE POP GRIDS DOWN 3% FROM WHAT WAS
INHERITED. 12Z GFS IN PARTICULAR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRYING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING BELOW 0.75 INCH ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES...BELOW 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPCOMING MONSOON SURGE...FEEL IT WILL TAKE A
BIT OF TIME TO SCOUR IT ALL OUT AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY IS WARRANTED.

MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY ALSO AGREE THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...IT IS THE
SPEED OF THE DRYING THAT IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DRIER. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA AS A COMPROMISE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PAC NW CUTOFF WEAKENS TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND EJECTS TO THE NORTH OF NEVADA...FORCING DRY AIR TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. FORECAST IS DRY FOR ALL ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH 00Z SAT. -TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...WITH IMPACTS ON AVIATION
OPERATIONS AT KELY/KP68/KEKO/KENV. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
ELKO/EUREKA/WHITE PINE/NYE COUNTIES WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS IN THEIR VICINITY. FOR
KWMC/KTPH...LESS COVERAGE OF -TSRA BUT THOSE THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND BLDU. PILOTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO CONTEND WITH CONVECTION WITH MANY TEMPOS AND
TAF AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. BT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONES 454 AND 457
FOR TODAY. ZONES 455 AND 470 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO HAVE SCATTERED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER NO HEADLINE WAS
ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES AS RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKE ACTIVITY AND
FUEL STATUS SUGGEST MINIMAL FIRE GROWTH. INITIAL ATTACK/FIRE
STARTS HOWEVER ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THESE TWO ZONES.

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT/RAIN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS. UPGRADED FRIDAYS FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 468 454 AND 457 TO RED
FLAG WARNINGS. ZONE 457 WILL SEE THE DRIEST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF. DUE TO FUEL CONCERNS AND THE RECENT LONG DRY
SPELL...DECIDED TO INCLUDE THE ZONE IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AS
FIRE GROWTH MAY STILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.

DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LI/S
LOWERING FROM OVER AN INCH IN CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY DOWN TO
AROUND TWO THIRDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SATURDAY. THERE
STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
HUMBOLDT AND MOST OF ELKO COUNTY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

96/98/98/96

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
241 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

NVZ030-031-033>041-130945-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-
241 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A MONSOON FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BEGINNING TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND
DRY TODAY UNTIL THE FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NYE...EUREKA...WHITE
PINE AND ELKO COUNTIES WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE...MANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DRY...PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE
RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL FIRE IGNITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS...INCLUDING EASTERN HUMBOLDT...LANDER...AND WESTERN NYE
COUNTIES. IF A NEW FIRE START IS WITNESSED...CONTACT YOUR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
159 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

NVZ034-035-037-040-041-122145-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY NV-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY NV-SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY NV-WHITE PINE COUNTY NV-
159 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LANDER...SOUTHERN
EUREKA...NORTHERN NYE AND NORTHWESTERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES UNTIL 245
PM PDT...

AT 130 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN EUREKA AND NORTHWEST
WHITE PINE COUNTIES. ALL STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EUREKA...
  U.S. HIGHWAY 50 NEAR EUREKA...
  PINTO SUMMIT...
  RURAL SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
  RURAL NORTHWESTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4009 11562 4007 11457 3884 11671 3914 11708
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 212DEG 17KT 3924 11654

TURNER/MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
248 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

NVZ033-039-122230-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY NV-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
248 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM PDT...

AT 240 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ELKO
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL RESULT IN LIMITED VISIBILITY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  U.S. HIGHWAY 93 SOUTH OF CLOVER VALLEY...
  ALTERNATE U.S. HIGHWAY 93 SOUTH OF WEST WENDOVER...
  RURAL SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4013 11511 4046 11534 4089 11457 4029 11402
      4020 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 239DEG 59KT 4043 11490

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
311 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

NVZ031-033-122245-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY NV-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
311 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
PDT...

AT 309 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF OASIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALONG STATE ROUTE 233 ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTELLO

&&

LAT...LON 4126 11433 4114 11414 4108 11435 4113 11441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 223DEG 9KT 4114 11433

86

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
317 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

NVZ041-122245-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY NV-
317 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NYE COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
PDT...

AT 254 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUCKWATER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...

&&

LAT...LON 3895 11586 3869 11556 3842 11604 3853 11617
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 225DEG 20KT 3875 11580

86

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
354 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

NVZ040-122330-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY NV-
354 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NYE COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
PDT...

AT 354 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON...MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTHERN NYE COUNTY...

&&

LAT...LON 3914 11700 3909 11666 3887 11685 3889 11699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 195DEG 13KT 3900 11689

86

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
429 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

NVZ035-130015-
WHITE PINE COUNTY NV-
429 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WHITE PINE COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM PDT...

AT 424 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   RUTH...
   ELY AIRPORT AND ELY...
   MCGILL...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 11469 3928 11417 3896 11495 3936 11538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 239DEG 59KT 3919 11505

TURNER