Hail in Nebraska, May 25, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WITH THIS TAF
FORECAST AND IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CAP OVER AREA WHETHER OR NOT THEY DEVELOP AND HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY BECOME. IT STILL APPEARS ENOUGH OF A RISK THAT
WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
ERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN EXACT TIMING. LATER TONIGHT CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE.

CHERMOK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINS THE MAIN
WEATHER FOCUS/CHALLENGE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT. PER WATER VAPOR AND SHORT RANGE MODELS...UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW NEARING CNTRL CA. FIRST WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION...WITH RICH
THETA E AIR AT H85 LIFTING ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA PER
GFS/NAM...GENERATED SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BUT STRONGEST AT 20Z WAS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WARM
ADVECTION WAS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD AND AWAY FROM NRN AND
ERN ZONES BY 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 4KM WRF INDICATED PRECIP
OR ITS POTENTIAL AT MOST AREAS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING AND
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CARRIED THEN. WILL
LINGER A DECREASING CHANCE AFTER 06Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH. AT 20Z MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS SEVERAL COUNTIES
SOUTH OF NEBRASKA WITH SECONDARY BOUNDARY SE OF LINCOLN/OMAHA.
MAIN SEVERE THREAT INITIALLY STILL APPEARS TO BE HAIL WITH THE
INCREASING ELEVATED CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR PRESENT AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD GET GOING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WEAKER BOUNDARY SE OF LINCOLN/OMAHA COULD PROVIDE EXTRA FOCUSING
POINT AND IF SURFACE WARM FRONT WOULD MANAGE TO LIFT UP INTO SERN
ZONES THIS EVENING A SMALL TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST TOO. APPEARS
BEST WARM ADVECTION AND SEVERE THREAT THOUGH IS PRIOR TO 06Z.

ON SATURDAY ALL MODELS SHIFT WARM FRONT UP TO OR NORTH OF OUR
NORTHERN BORDER AND BASED ON HOW HOT IT IS GETTING TODAY SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY...WOULD EXPECT SOME MID 90S INTO SRN ZONES AT LEAST AND
POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH. LEFT IN SMALL POPS N IN THE MORNING NEAR
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND W AND NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON EITHER DUE
TO STRONG HEATING POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A HIGH BASED SUPERCELL
FOR THE FORMER...AND IN CASE RETREATING WARM FRONT SLOWS/STALLS
LATTER. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME...AS CAP
STRENGTH WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY BUT ANY DISTURBANCES WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION STILL IN ORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
IN THE EVENING. STRONG TROUGH WILL BRING FALLING HGTS TO NEBR AND
SHOVES BOUNDARY TOWARD/INTO WESTERN ZONES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HIGH AND TRAINING CELLS LIKELY. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
ALSO QUITE HIGH WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SEVERE WEATHER
RISK LOOMS AGAIN. BOOSTED HIGHS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.

QUIETER AND POTENTIALLY NICE MEMORIAL DAY STILL ON TRACK...AND
ALTHOUGH NW WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MODEL BLEND
SUGGESTED...THEY SHOULDN'T BE AS STRONG AS SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.  PLUS
DWPTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN SATURDAY TO GO ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS COMPARED TO SAT OR SUN.

REST OF EXTENDED...NO CHANGES FROM MODEL BLEND. NEXT TROUGH TO
ARRIVE SOMETIME IN LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED PERIOD PROVIDING
NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A SLOWER TIMING COULD ALLOW
MAX TEMPS TO BE HIGHER THAN BLEND/FORECAST GAVE AND THAT TOO WILL
BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER OF WEEKEND PASSES.

CHERMOK

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
415 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-261100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
415 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ALSO...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE A HIGHER
CONCENTRATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...PUSHING HEAT INDICES
TO THE UPPER 90S.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE ENCOURAGED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
952 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

NEZ017-031-032-260330-
STANTON NE-PIERCE NE-MADISON NE-
952 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN STANTON...
SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE AND MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 948 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF MEADOW GROVE...OR
18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORFOLK...PIERCE...BATTLE CREEK...HADAR AND MEADOW GROVE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 275 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 57 AND 81.
 HIGHWAY 81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 166.

LAT...LON 4224 9751 4211 9736 4210 9737 4209 9734
      4203 9728 4180 9774 4189 9784 4199 9783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 230DEG 29KT 4192 9775

ZAPOTOCNY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1105 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

NEZ032-033-043-260430-
STANTON NE-COLFAX NE-CUMING NE-
1105 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STANTON...NORTH CENTRAL COLFAX
AND SOUTHWESTERN CUMING COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1101 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF STANTON...OR 17
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORFOLK...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST STANTON COUNTY...CLARKSON AND HOWELLS.

LAT...LON 4192 9696 4176 9673 4174 9681 4175 9690
      4172 9691 4167 9716 4182 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 269DEG 43KT 4182 9722

ZAPOTOCNY