A squall line of thunderstorms swept eastward ahead of a strong 500 mb shortwave trough exiting from eastern Kansas into western Missouri. The squall line occurred along a strong surface cold front.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A squall line of thunderstorms swept eastward ahead of a strong 500 mb shortwave trough exiting from eastern Kansas into western Missouri. The squall line occurred along a strong surface cold front. Low level southerly winds in the vicinity of the storms were around 40 knots. A few damaging wind gusts occurred with some of these storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 17, 5:58 PM CST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 658 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF 00Z TAFS. A NEW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...EFFECTIVELY BECOMING THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION IN PLACE OF THE INITIAL BAND. EVEN THOUGH THE TORNADO WATCH GOES UNTIL 2 AM...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. THEREAFTER...LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 02-03Z. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ALL EYES FOCUSED UPON DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE PAH FA...A LINE OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP. IF IT DOES...THEN THE ENVIRONMENT IT ENCOUNTERS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND IS A MAIN QUESTION MARK AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STORMS CAN GET GOING AND WHERE EXACTLY. IF THEY DO...IMPRESSIVE WINDS ALOFT/SHEAR FORECAST LEAD TO SUPPORT SPC SLGT RISK SEVERE ALONG/VCNTY OF APPROACHING LINE...MAINLY SEMO/SWIL/FAR WKY THIS PM-EARLY EVENING. THE STRONG UPPER WIND ENERGY OF THE VORTEX REALLY WINDS THE SURFACE SYSTEM UP AS THE FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...OCCLUDING THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THEREBY LIKELY DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON AND THE FURTHER EASTWARD THE CONVECTION MAKES IT. LIKEWISE INSTABILITY FALLS OFF AS THE EVENING GOES ON. TIME WILL TELL IF THE RECENTLY ISSUED SVR BOX JUST TO OUR WEST IS EXPANDED EASTWARD. AFTER SYSTEM PASSAGE TONIGHT...POPS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AND DRY AIR COMES IN ON STRONG/GUSTY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLYS TOMORROW. NOT AS STRONG AS THIS PM...WHERE WE'VE HAD OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AND EVEN IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES...BUT STIFF NONETHELESS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE 20S PERCENTILE WILL ACT TO ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER TOMORROW PM. SAVE FOR A CYCLONE RELATED INSTABILITY POP THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS BENIGN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME DISPARITY IN THE LONG TERM. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...STARTING SATURDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A H5 RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IT SHOWS THE RIDGE SLOWLY FLATTENING...BUT CONTINUING TO DEFLECT ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...THE GFS NEVER BUILDS UP THE RIDGE LIKE THE ECMWF...CONSEQUENTLY IT ALLOWS MOISTURE AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING SYSTEM TO BEGIN PRODUCING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH TIME THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND BECOMING STATIONARY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT... IT CONTINUES TO CRANK OUT SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST TERMINALS THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING STRONG COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS... ESPECIALLY AT KCGI AND KPAH WHERE THE STORMS WILL BE STRONGER. EVEN BEHIND THE BAND OF STORMS...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SSW WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WILL GUSTS TO 20-30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WSW 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THURSDAY WILL PICK BACK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && AVIATION...RJP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-181000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEY WILL REACH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MEANWHILE THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON AND IS STILL POISED TO MAKE ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MORE SPECIFICALLY...LOOK FOR THIS LINE OF POTENTIAL STORMS TO DEVELOP SOMETIME BETWEEN 400 PM AND 700 PM...ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF BEST CHANCE STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...IF THEY ARE TO DEVELOP. THEN THE LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY AFTER 700 PM...CARRYING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. THE LINE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE AREA OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND THE PENNYRILE OF WESTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 1000 PM...AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM'S DEPARTURE. THESE THURSDAY POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR...CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S PERCENTILE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 545 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ILZ080-081-084-085-088-089-092>094-KYZ001>006-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-180100- PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION IL-JOHNSON-ALEXANDER- PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER- STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT... CARBONDALE...HERRIN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...CAIRO...MOUND CITY... METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH... MAYFIELD...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT... VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON... CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID 545 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...TORNADO WATCH TIL 2 AM FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY IS NOT SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR FOR INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WITH THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS TO WEST PLAINS MISSOURI. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SHOULD SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE...THEY COULD WORK EAST INTO FAR WEST KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WEST OF INTERSTATES 57 AND 24...BEFORE WEAKENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. A BRIEF...SHORT TRACK TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY WARNINGS. NOLES
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 627 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ILZ080-081-084-085-088-089-092>094-KYZ001>006-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-180130- PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION IL-JOHNSON-ALEXANDER- PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER- STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT... CARBONDALE...HERRIN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...CAIRO...MOUND CITY... METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH... MAYFIELD...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT... VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON... CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID 627 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...TORNADO WATCH TIL 2 AM FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY... AT 625 PM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS TO MARBLE HILL AND POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI. STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE ACROSS NORTHERN JACKSON AND SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH AS THEY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY...SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY...EVENTUALLY REACHING FRANKLIN COUNTY. STORMS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH AS WELL. ANY OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...SO STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT... REMEMBER SEVERE STORMS CAN PRODUCE A BRIEF SHORT TRACK TORNADO WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS THE LINE FARTHER WEST FROM THE ST. LOUIS AREA BACK TOWARD WEST PLAINS HAD DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY. NOLES
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:09 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several large branches and trees were blown down. At least a couple of trees landed on houses, and a few others landed on roads. A trained spotter estimated wind gusts to at least 60 mph. The damaging storm crossed the Mississippi River into Alexander County, Illinois.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, October 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 411062.