Beneficial rain during the month of November improved drought conditions across the Missouri Bootheel. As a result, extreme (D3) conditions improved to moderate (D1) conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Beneficial rain during the month of November improved drought conditions across the Missouri Bootheel. As a result, extreme (D3) conditions improved to moderate (D1) conditions. Pastures as well as lake and river levels improved greatly due to the rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:50 PM CST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012/
UPDATE...
PARIS TN HAD ALREADY DROPPED TO 38 DEGREES AT 8 PM WITH A SURFACE
DEW POINT OF 22 DEGREES. WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF WEST
TN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO
INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM AROUND JACKSON TN TO UNION CITY AND
EASTWARD AND BEGAN THE FREEZE WARNING A LITTLE EARLIER AT
MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOOK
FINE. SOME CIRRUS WILL SKIRT THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...BUT GENERALLY TONIGHT WITH BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ON THE
CHILLY SIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY PICK UP JUST
SLIGHTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A SUBTLE REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL
AIR MOVES INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT TO INCLUDE THE
UPDATED FREEZE WARNING AND TO MAKE SOME TWEAKS FOR TONIGHT.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012/
CURRENTLY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS RANGE FROM 54 AT PARIS
TO 72 IN MONROE COUNTY. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...DRY FUELS AND A
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO RAPID COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 30S. AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WILL BE THE COLDEST
AND A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED THERE. A FROST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND MOST OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL OFF TO THE NE AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL BE WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BY THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT LEFT DRY FOR NOW. BY SATURDAY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS ARKANSAS. VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH MANY LOCATION HITTING 80 DEGREES. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THOUGH THE ECMWF IS FASTER. TOOK A BLEND FOR NOW. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARD
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH COOL NW FLOW
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPS FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH SOME WARMING BY MIDWEEK AS THE TROF
SHIFTS EAST.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 00Z TAF THINKING WITH CONTINUED VFR WEATHER.
WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. BY NOON WINDS WILL BECOME 6-8 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 43 71 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 32 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 39 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 36 68 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
UNION-YALOBUSHA.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-TISHOMINGO.
TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
DECATUR-GIBSON-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
WEAKLEY.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 844 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-011030- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 844 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO CORINTH MISSISSIPPI LINE. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND MOST OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY. THE FROST ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JCL
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme (D3) drought conditions improved to moderate (D1) conditions.
Extreme (D3) drought conditions improved to moderate (D1) conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 421763, 421764.