Drought in Missouri, November 1 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1050 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER MID MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY...SO HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A TAD...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS
WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

JP

&&

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...BUT
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SANDY FINALLY LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE BOTTLENECK UPSTREAM
IS ALLOWED TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS OVERALL SHIFT WILL LEAD TO MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF
THE JET STREAM ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL
GRADIENT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK THROUGH MID MISSOURI. HIGHS
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S
QUINCY-LITCHFIELD TO THE UPPER 60S COLUMBIA-SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

SATURDAY:

DIGGING CANADIAN TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK LEAD IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS REMAINS
TOO BULLISH IN ITS QPF SIGNAL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CAPPING PRESENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A SMALL BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION (SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER) WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE NOCTURNAL JET...WITH
THE GREATEST FOCUS OVER THE NRN CWA THROUGH 18Z. CERTAINLY NOT A
GREAT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION OVERALL CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT
AND REALLY NO OTHER IDENTIFIABLE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS. THIS SURFACE WAVE WILL ALSO ACT TO RE-ORIENT THE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH FASHION AND THE SATURDAY TEMP
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AND CLOUD
COVER. STILL THINK IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO PUSH 70 EARLY IN THE DAY
OVER SE MO...TAPERING BACK INTO THE MID 50S OVER NE MO.

SUNDAY-MONDAY:

CANADIAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE GFS MUCH DEEPER THAN OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS...CLOSING OFF THE SYSTEM OVER NRN ILLINOIS. THE EFFECTS OF
INTENSITY DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER...WITH MOST SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR AMPLE STRATO-CU AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER NE MO AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE GREATEST IMPACT
WILL BE ANOTHER SHOT OF SEASONABLY COOLER AIR THAT WILL CARRY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY -- HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL RESUME WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM
FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
CURRENT WITH A NE-SW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND OVERALL READINGS JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012

SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN KS AND WRN MO WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD.
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH OUR AREA THU AFTN
AND EARLY EVNG. WEAK W-NWLY SFC WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO A W-SW
DIRECTION LATE TGT AND THU MRNG BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO A NWLY
DIRECTION AFTER FROPA THU AFTN INTO THU EVNG. JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE TGT...THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SEWD INTO OUR
AREA TOWARDS MRNG AND MOVE SE OF THE TAF SITES THU AFTN OR EARLY
THU EVNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...NWLY SFC WIND WILL BACK AROUND TO A WLY
DIRECTION BY EARLY THU MRNG...THEN VEER AROUND TO A NW DIRECTION
LATE THU AFTN AFTER FROPA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10000 FT WILL
MOVE THROUGH STL THU MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
513 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
513 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

GKS