Isolated severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front as it progressed southeastward during the hottest and most unstable time of day. At midday, the cold front extended southwest from a low over Lake Michigan across central Illinois to central Missouri.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front as it progressed southeastward during the hottest and most unstable time of day. At midday, the cold front extended southwest from a low over Lake Michigan across central Illinois to central Missouri. Although convergence was not especially strong near the front, thunderstorms increased as the front moved into progressively hotter and more humid air with little to no capping. Moderately strong deep-layer wind shear and moderate instability supported multicellular organization.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 2:32 PM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 332 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012 NOW THAT STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE JUST NW OF OUR AREA ALONG THE MS RIVER...WILL GO WITH LIKELY STORM CHANCES FROM MW TO SE DURING THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS STATED THERE IS A 60 PERCENT JUST OF ISSUING A WATCH BOX FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER OM THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012 UPDATED MAINLY TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY UNTIL ANY THUNDERSTORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ALSO INCREASED DEW POINTS...WHICH PUSHES AFTN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION FOR THE NEW 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012 PLEASE SEE ABOVE UPDATE DISCUSSION REGARDING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH IS ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA AS I TYPE THIS MESSAGE. STILL UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE SIGNIFICANCE THE STORMS WILL ACHIEVE. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK THERMAL INHIBITION WHERE THE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FORM. HOWEVER...THIS IS PROGGED BY MOST NEAR TERM MODELS TO DISSIPATE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN SE MO AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IF STORMS INC ERASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WILL PROBABLY ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THAT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR A MOSTLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEEKEND COMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC TAKES OVER AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS NWLY. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT MAY RETURN LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MS RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL SOMETIMES COMBINE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SYSTEMS...SO WILL GO WITH AT LEAST SMALL STORM CHCS ALONG AND NE OF THIS FRONT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL27 2012 MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GEM SHOWS MINIMAL QPF AS IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MORE QUICKLY AND THEN GENERATES BETTER QPF TO OUR SOUTH. STAYING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS...WENT WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS FOCUSED IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ECMWF THEN DRIES THINGS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS LINGERS SOME PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF...AND WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS FUZZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS OUR REGION CONTINUE TO BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. POPS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY WHEN THE ECMWF SHOWS AND UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE A LITTLE THROUGH MID WEEK...AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CREEP BACK ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012 THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FROM AROUND 21Z THROUGH ABOUT 02Z OR SO FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO FORM...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. FOR NOW...NOTHING ON THE RADAR...AND WILL ONLY GO WITH VCTS UNTIL THE SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS TODAY. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && UPDATE...MEFFERT SHORT TERM...MEFFERT LONG TERM....RST AVIATION...MEFFERT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-281000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-280000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN... JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO... MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE... EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON... BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON... MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD... DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO... CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL... CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF... BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012 ...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY... EVEN THOUGH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA...THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY YIELD MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREES RANGE. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO SUCH HEAT INDICES COULD LEAD TO HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE. THOSE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTDOORS SHOULD BRING ALONG PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THEIR ACTIVITY. CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE NOT IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT. MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE FRESH WATER.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:04 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter estimated wind gusts to 70 mph. A lot of tree branches were blown down.
Quarter-size hail occurred on U.S. Highway 67.
Estimated wind gusts from 60 to 70 mph were associated with this storm. Downed trees and power lines were reported in and around Poplar Bluff, including U.S. Highway 67 northwest of the city.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 391500, 391498, 391499.