A cold front moved through North Mississippi during the afternoon hours of February 29, 2012. Showers and thunderstorms redeveloped ahead of the front.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A cold front moved through North Mississippi during the afternoon hours of February 29, 2012. Showers and thunderstorms redeveloped ahead of the front. Some storms became severe producing damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 29, 12:05 PM CST, 4 hours 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1205 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012 .UPDATE... 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS THE PREDOMINANT CONCERN IN THIS UPDATED DISCUSSION. LATEST KNQA/REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE TORNADO WATCH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 TO 7.5 C/KM...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 900 TO 1500 J/KG...LIS BETWEEN -4 TO -5...SOMEWHAT SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 65 TO 75 KTS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. THINK THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY PUBLISHED. CJC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... AS OF 3 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S IN THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOW 70S IN THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED...AND SOME OF THE WINDS ARE MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE BY 5 TO 10 MPH. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE THE SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND THE SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. SHORT TERM... A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES TO RACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH END OF THIS LINE. THE ATMOSPHERE STILL SEEMS TO BE CAPPED ACROSS THE LOWER TWO THIRDS OF ARKANSAS AND ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THE CAP WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF SMALL BOWS CAN DEVELOP LIKE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS LOW SINCE MOST OF THE WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...ALL FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BY THE TIME THE STORMS FIRE OVER THE MEMPHIS WARNING AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE STORMS OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL START TO SWING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SLOWLY BEGIN CREEPING UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ML CAPE VALUES OF 800-1500 J/KG...0-3 KM HELICITIES OF 200-400 M2/S2...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM INDICATE THAT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT IS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE CLUSTER THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE COULD BE A TORNADO THREAT WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP...BUT THAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECAST SOUTHWEST. THE STORMS WILL THEN FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. RRH LONG TERM... THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO ALL PRECIPITATION. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MID SOUTH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BUILDING BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM NEXT MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH REGARD TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS A FULL DAY FASTER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF. CONSIDERING DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALIGNING WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNING FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. JLH && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE SHORTLY ALONG I-40 AND PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE TERMINALS...OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE OUT PREVAILING TS GROUPS GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CELLS AND CONTINUE THE TEMPOS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KTS BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. BORGHOFF && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 77 49 74 63 / 80 10 10 50 MKL 76 42 72 59 / 90 10 10 50 JBR 76 44 69 56 / 80 10 10 50 TUP 77 52 75 62 / 90 60 20 50 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 245 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-011530- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 245 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SAVANNAH TO OXFORD THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BORGHOFF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
TNZ003-004-020-021-292100-
WEAKLEY TN-CARROLL TN-GIBSON TN-HENRY TN-
225 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR...
NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
EAST CENTRAL GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3
MILES EAST OF BRADFORD AT 225 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.
PEOPLE IN CARROLL...GIBSON...HENRY AND WEAKLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR MCKENZIE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.
&&
LAT...LON 3622 8811 3622 8813 3615 8817 3612 8820
3608 8821 3596 8886 3613 8891 3633 8810
3626 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 255DEG 55KT 3608 8874
BORGHOFFThe Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 20 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:21 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight line winds knocked down several trees in Smithville.
Straight line winds knocked down multiple trees in Greenwood Springs.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, February 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 365087, 365088.