Hail and Damaging Wind in Mississippi, April 5, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
718 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY SETTING OFF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT AFTER
SUNRISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. ALREADY SEEING A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY
COULD BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST AND DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. FOR THIS REASON...THE SLIGHT RISK AS
BEEN EXPANDED INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM JACKSON...TO MEMPHIS...TO CLARKSDALE. COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY. EXPECT
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS A SFC HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CWA AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THE AREA DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. WILL NEED TO WATCH TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS AS FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

KRM

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR...BUT EXPECT SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...SHIFTING FROM THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS GENERALLY ACROSS MEM AND TUP. DUE TO THIS TRACK...WINDS
COULD SHIFT ABRUPTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  50  67  47 /  60  10   0   0
MKL  73  44  65  40 /  70  20   0   0
JBR  70  45  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
TUP  75  49  69  44 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
454 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
454 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE...FROM CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI...TO MEMPHIS...TO JACKSON TENNESSEE. STRONG STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH.THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY 7 PM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES
EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

KRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

MSZ023-024-051200-
MONROE MS-CHICKASAW MS-
618 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 6
MILES NORTH OF HOUSTON AT 618 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
AMORY...HOUSTON AND OKOLONA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8831 3380 8834 3389 8903 3407 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1118Z 277DEG 19KT 3398 8897

30/SIRMON