Drought in Minnesota, April 1 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH
CLEAR SKIES FROM WALKER TO COOK TO CRANE LAKE AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. SATELLITE DID SHOW THE STRATUS WAS MOVING BACK TOWARD TEH
WEST AND NORTH TOWARD WALKER. FOG WAS ALSO DEVELOPING...AND VSBYS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING
TO EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CEILINGS LIFTING QUICKLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING GIVEN THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE STABILITY DROPPING. THE MODELS DO SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND BY LATE EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

SHORT TERM...

CLEARING LINE WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...BUT HAS NEARLY STALLED WITH EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE OF THE
CLOUD DECK EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST. WE ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE CWA UNDER THE CLOUDS
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO EASTERLY
LATE...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO REMAIN OR EXPAND.

FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WERE
NARROWING...AND AS LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER WE SHOULD SEE
VSBYS DROP. DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A VERY
SLOW CLEARING LINE MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES. THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CLEARING LINE WAS FASTER THAN THE SOUTH DUE TO STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND VEER TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WE SLOWED ANY CLEARING AT KHIB/KBRD AND JUST
WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS LATER THIS
EVENING...AND LEFT KDLH/KHYR OVERCAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DECREASING AND VEERING WINDS TO EASTERLY SHOULD ALLOW
STRATUS TO REDEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH FOG. THE STRATUS
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT
OCCURRING IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE GIVEN PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

SHORT TERM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BASIN...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
WRN MINNESOTA. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE
IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE FOG SHOULD
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTHSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...DRAWING WARMER AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE NWP MODELS THEN
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE
NAM12 SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG WITH
SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 150-250 M2/S2 ACROSS CNTL MN AND WCNTL WI.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...A
FEW STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION EWD
TO HAYWARD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF CLEARLY BRING THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TENDING TO AGREE
WITH THE ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION. NO MATTER WHAT...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  53  42  55 /  10  10  50  60
INL  33  61  39  51 /  10  10  40  40
BRD  45  68  51  59 /  10  10  40  50
HYR  42  68  47  60 /  10  10  50  60
ASX  40  57  44  57 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...MELDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
417 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-011030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
417 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FOG WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...AND
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE
NORTHSHORE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-011030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
417 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

BERDES

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)