The Lower North Fork wildfire, south of Conifer, was not declared 100 percent contained until April 2nd. The combination of very strong winds, record warm temperatures and extremely dry conditions all contributed to a rapid increase in fire growth.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BOU wrote it up.
The Lower North Fork wildfire, south of Conifer, was not declared 100 percent contained until April 2nd. The combination of very strong winds, record warm temperatures and extremely dry conditions all contributed to a rapid increase in fire growth. A total of 900 homes were evacuated during the wildfire's peak. It burned a total of 4,150 acres; destroyed 27 homes and resulted in the deaths of three local residents. Property damage was estimated to be $11 million.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Denver/Boulder, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 7:59 PM MST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 859 PM MDT SAT MAR 31 2012 .UPDATE... && .AVIATION...WINDS ARE FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BE MORE SSW BY 05Z AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH SUN MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM MDT SAT MAR 31 2012/ SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...SOUTH PARK AND ACROSS PALMER DIVIDE...BEGINNING TO EXTEND NORTH TOWARD THE DENVER AREA. LOOKS LIKE RED FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN AREAS WHERE WARNING CURRENTLY RESIDES. MODELS SHOW SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENING THIS EVENING WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH LOSS OF MIXING THIS EVENING TO AID IN GUSTY WINDS...WOULD EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE. CURRENT RFW EXPIRES AT 02Z...DOESN'T APPEAR THAT IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED LATER. AS FOR REST OF PLAINS...SOME GUSTS COULD REACH CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME. RED FLAG WARNING UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE...SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING UPPER TROUGH INTO GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...HELPING TO INCREASE SURFACE GRADIENT. SHOULD SEE WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CFWA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...RED FLAG CONDITIONS A GOOD BET FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S. WILL UPGRADE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS LOOK LESS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PLAINS...DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND WARNING NORTHWARD. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT DEEP BY THE AFTERNOON...AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION A FEW HOURS. THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST SOME MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ZONE 31. DESPITE COOLER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PLAINS. RECORD HIGH FOR DENVER IS 78...SHOULD BE BROKEN DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD. LONG TERM...QUITE AN INTERESTING PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH AN UPPER LOW DIVING THROUGH GREAT BASIN MONDAY...THEN VERY SLOWLY TRUDGING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE AND IT IS QUITE REASONABLE WITH FREEZING LEVELS TO EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MOUNTAINS MANY AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 8 INCHES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE A WINDY DAY IN EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...AND QUITE A BIT COOLER AS WELL. NAM NOT NEARLY AS MOIST AS ALL OTHER MODELS...AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT MAY BRING A DAY OF RAIN ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SCT POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF A DENVER TO AKRON LINE...BUT STAY TUNED...DEPENDING ON HOW LOW MOVES AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE MIGHT BE ENTRAINED INTO CIRCULATION...POPS OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. IT WILL ALL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUMP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...MAKING THAT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS. SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AT APA. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST 17-19Z BEFORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION PREVAILS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ211-213- 214-216-241-245>247-249. && SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM....RTG AVIATION...RPK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1102 AM MDT SAT MAR 31 2012 COZ030>051-011200- JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/ NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/ SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/ EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES- NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY- 1102 AM MDT SAT MAR 31 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOON TO 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS... PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTH PARK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS..PALMER DIVIDE..MOUNTAIN VALLEYS..SOUTH PARK AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT VERY WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND OVER PARK COUNTY EAST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST ABOVE 30 MPH ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN 36 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PALMER DIVIDE MAY ALSO PICK UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW THE UPPER LOW MOVES...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN ON THE PLAINS TUESDAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. D_L/RTG
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, April 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 372239.