A small cluster of thunderstorms dumped very heavy rain on the city of Cadillac.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A small cluster of thunderstorms dumped very heavy rain on the city of Cadillac.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 9:16 AM EST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1016 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 GIST OF THE GOING FORECAST IS INTACT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE...PRIMARILY TO NORTHWARD EXTENT OF EXPECTED PRECIP SHIELD. MODESTLY STRONG UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH WISCONSIN...WITH A NOTABLE 700-500MB AXIS OF DEFORMATION FORCING ACTING TO ELONGATE A BAND OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF M-72. PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS RUNNING ACROSS THIS AREA IS ALSO SERVING TO PROMOTE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BENEATH COOLING MID LEVELS...WITH UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE PER SHORT TERM RAP FORECAST RAOBS. AS SUCH...NO SURPRISE WE ARE SEEING OCCASIONAL THUNDER BREAK OUT AS WELL. HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...SUSPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ALL WHILE EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING PUT A DEFINITELY NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD. PER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND STRONG SREF HINTS...WILL TRIM THE NORTHERN TIER OF HIGHER POPS...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE HURON (NORTH OF M-32) AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF EASTERN UPPER PROBABLY OUT OF THE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO EXPECTED AXIS OF DEFORMATION FORCING...WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE SOME DIURNAL HELP TO THE PRECIP WITHIN A QUITE MOIST AIRMASS...WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S PROMOTING MUCAPE VALUES UP TOWARD 700 J/KG. GIVEN THE UPPER COLD POOL SKIRTING OVERHEAD AND A GOOD CHUNK OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SITUATED ABOVE THE -12C ISOTHERM...SMALL HAIL REMAINS A THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXISTS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 1.5+ INCH PWATS DOWN NEAR THE M-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STEERING FLOW IS AN ANEMIC 5-10 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 10KFT AND A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT BELOW WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A LOCALIZED 2+ INCHES OF RAIN. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH VERY SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH UPPER COLD POOL SLIPPING OVERHEAD WHILE WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE 22-24C RANGE. BEST THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE. PER SATELLITE TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED GOING HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES INLAND WITH ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LIKELY CAPPING THINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO NORTHWEST LOWER KICKING THINGS TOWARD THE MID 70S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE EASTERN UPPER WITH THINNING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COMPACT UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARCING AROUND THIS CIRCULATION FROM THE MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN BORDER SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN (WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPWARD MOTION FIELD AHEAD OF THIS LOW SPREADING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN). MEANWHILE...A FEW SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE LIKELY A LITTLE STEEPER PER 00Z DTX SOUNDING. UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUGGESTS HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE THIS MORNING...PLUS STRONGEST DIURNAL COMPONENT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND MAY RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000J/KG RANGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO THE NORTH WITH DRIER LOW LAYERS...AND LOOKING LIKE MOST OF EASTERN UPPER WILL PROBABLY ESCAPE WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...THUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. PLAN TO CARRY AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF SMALL HAIL SOUTH OF A CVX-OSC LINE FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. WARMEST HIGHS TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE NORTH OF THE BRIDGE WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY...IN GENERAL EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. AS UPPER WAVE SLIPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN ITS WAKE...THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES WITH SKIES CLEARING. MAYBE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER...BUT SHOULD BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHELTERED SPOTS DROPPING BELOW 50 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SET TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...FEATURING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS RIDGING BOOKENDED BY EASTERN NOAM AND FAR EAST PACIFIC TROUGHINESS. AS A RESULT... RECENTLY ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLAVOR TO MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL REMAIN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND ALLOWING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST CONCERNS RELEGATED TO THE LATTER OF THESE TWO...FOCUSING ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEXT WORK WEEK. RESERVOIR OF DRY CANADIAN AIR SWEEPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES BEHIND TOMORROWS DEPARTING SYSTEM...SETTING UP A MAINLY QUIET...DRY WEEKEND. OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EXCELLENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY...AND COMBINED WITH LINGERING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH...SHOULD SET UP A PRETTY DECENT INLAND CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON. FORMIDABLE MID LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO KEEP CLOUD HEIGHTS IN CHECK AND PREVENT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LATEST PROGS STARTING TO THROW SOME CONCERN INTO INHERITED DRY SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE AND BEGINNINGS OF MODEST RETURN FLOW NOW SUPPORTING SOME EASTERN UPPER SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUS FOR BRINGING IN MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY WITH AN ANTECEDENT RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END SHOWER POTENTIAL (SEE BELOW)...WAITING FOR MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE DOING SO. NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. "POTENTIALLY" SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH ABOVE OUTLINED FLOW AT LEAST OPENING UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING PER TRENDS...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES AND DEEPEST CORE OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS EXPECTED WITH THIS FLOW REGIME...EXACT TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND BOTH THE GFS AND GEM BY SEVERAL HOURS WITH LEAD WAVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SIMPLY NOT PRUDENT AT THIS HOUR TO PICK ONE OVER THE OTHER...AND WILL RIDE WITH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOW END RAIN CHANCES. SAME GOES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT PINWHEELS OVER THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...BECAUSE OF SAID TIMING CONCERNS...SIMPLY NO WAY TO SIDESTEP INHERITED MULTI-PERIOD RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...MUCH OF THE TIME OUTLINED ABOVE WILL REMAIN DRY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY TIED TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS...BUT OFF THE DECK THERMAL TRENDS SUGGEST HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. PATTERN LOOKS TO SIMPLY REPEAT ITSELF LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING A DRY MID WEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF MVFR FOG/LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z AS UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCALIZED IFR VSBY/S POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG BEFORE THE SHOWERS ARRIVE. CIGS GENERALLY MVFR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS STEADILY IMPROVING BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BACK MORE TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT BUT GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS IN. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...LAWRENCE SYNOPSIS...MSB SHORT TERM...JPB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...JK MARINE...JPB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 281200- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF M-32. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE DAY. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX (ALL LOWERCASE) JPB/LAWRENCE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1036 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 MIZ032-033-271630- WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY 1036 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 ...LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA... AS OF 1030 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SEVERAL AREAS...PRIMARILY IN THE IMMEDIATE CADILLAC AREA...AND ALSO BETWEEN LAKE CITY AND FALMOUTH IN MISSAUKEE COUNTY. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 30 TO 60 MINUTES ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CADILLAC URBAN AREA. SEVERAL REPORTS OF HIGH WATER HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...INCLUDING A REPORT OF 2 FEET OF WATER COVERING THE ROAD ON NORTH MITCHELL STREET. THOSE TRAVELING THROUGH THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER COVERED ROADWAYS...AND REMEMBER TO NEVER DRIVE INTO ANY FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. LAWRENCE
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Four inches of rain fell in just two hours on downtown Cadillac. This resulted in rapidly flowing water on Mitchell Street, and in other parts of the downtown area. Water entered some businesses. Some intersections had 1 to 2 feet of water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 399995.