A few strong thunderstorms moved through Saginaw Bay.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
A few strong thunderstorms moved through Saginaw Bay.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 5:59 AM EST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 659 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH ABUNDANT UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORMS AT MBS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. FARTHER SOUTH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS THUNDERSTORMS POP UP IN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN KFNT HAS ALREADY BEEN CLOSE TO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL SINK SOUTH THIS EVENING WHEN THE WARM FRONT SINKS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CARRY PREVAILING SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 06Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE SHORT TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND ACTIVITY CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MURKY WITH THE AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURES TO SPARK CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID MUCAPE VALUES SOAR TO 2 TO 2.5 J/G IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...THEREFORE CANNOT GO COMPLETELY DRY IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES TODAY WILL CARRY THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AND LONG SKINNY CAPE IN PLACE. RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PUSHING THE WARM FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MUCAPE VALUES WILL STILL BE A DECENT 1-2 J/G OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND A LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN LOW-MIDLEVEL THETAE ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE REFLECTION/UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/QUEBEC WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A MOIST COLUMN...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.20 INCHES...AND FRONTAL FORCING GIVES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE ALONG THE SWATH OF THETAE AND WILL TREND SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TRUE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD...GETTING A BOOST DURING THE AFTERNOON BY A BACKDOOR RESPONSE OFF OF LAKE HURON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH/THUMB...WHILE READINGS SHOULD STILL MAKE A RUN AT 80 DEGREES FOR THE DETROIT METRO SOUTHWARD. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SFC BASED PARCELS SHOULD YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG. A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...HOWEVER...WILL LIMIT MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK. QUITE AN AGGRESSIVE SFC ANTICYCLONE PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE HEELS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EVENT FRI AFT/EVENING. SHOWALTER ANALYSIS AND SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A VERY STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE EARLIER CALL TO GO DRY IS LOOKING BETTER WITH THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE THUMB TO THE MIDDLE 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WHERE STRONG LAKE AGGREGATE ENHANCED SURFACE RIDGING BROUGHT A DAY FILLED WITH STRATUS AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES. MODEL DATA IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION/CLOUD DECK WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING ATTM. DID MAKE A BOLD MOVE WITH HIGHS FOR SATURDAY KEEPING VALUES IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 03.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING LAKE AGGREGATE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A RESIDUAL EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY. THE COLDEST OF THE MIDLEVEL AIR THAT WILL BACK DOWN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND AND THE FACT A COUPLE OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLES WILL HAVE OCCURRED...WENT COOLER AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY IS PROGGED TO SPIN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE STRUCTURE OF THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MARINE... A WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && AVIATION.....KURIMSKI SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI LONG TERM....CB MARINE.......KURIMSKI YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 426 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-040830- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 426 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PESKY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-040830- ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 426 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PESKY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CB YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 257 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 MIZ047-048-053-054-061>063-030800- BAY MI-GENESEE MI-LAPEER MI-MIDLAND MI-SAGINAW MI-ST. CLAIR MI-TUSCOLA MI- 257 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 253 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANFORD TO BURTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR... LAPORTE...ATLAS...SHIELDS...POSEYVILLE...MOUNT MORRIS...GOODRICH AND FOSTERS AROUND 305 AM EDT. MIDLAND...GENESEE...FREELAND...DAVISON...CLIO AND BIRCH RUN AROUND 310 AM EDT. SAGINAW AROUND 315 AM EDT. TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY. KURIMSKI
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 334 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 MIZ047-048-053>055-062-030830- BAY MI-LAPEER MI-MIDLAND MI-SAGINAW MI-SANILAC MI-TUSCOLA MI- 334 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TUSCOLA...BAY...WESTERN SANILAC...NORTHEASTERN SAGINAW...NORTHERN MIDLAND AND NORTHERN LAPEER COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM EDT... AT 333 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EDENVILLE TO BIRCH RUN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR... EDENVILLE...CARROLLTON AND FRANKENMUTH AROUND 340 AM EDT. HOPE...TUSCOLA...GERA...ZILWAUKEE...BOMBAY AND AUBURN AROUND 345 AM EDT. INDIANTOWN...WILLARD AND MILLINGTON AROUND 350 AM EDT. RICHVILLE AND OTTER LAKE AROUND 355 AM EDT. TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY. KURIMSKI
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 446 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 MIZ048-030930- BAY MI- 446 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BAY COUNTY UNTIL 530 AM EDT... AT 443 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BENTLEY TO KAWKAWLIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... PINCONNING... ESSEXVILLE... TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY. KURIMSKI
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 537 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 MIZ060-031000- SHIAWASSEE MI- 537 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHIAWASSEE COUNTY UNTIL 600 AM EDT... AT 533 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OWOSSO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR... CORUNNA AROUND 545 AM EDT. VERNON AND DURAND AROUND 550 AM EDT. LENNON...JUDDVILLE AND NEW LOTHROP AROUND 555 AM EDT. TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY. KURIMSKI
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 623 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 MIZ047-048-031115- BAY-MIDLAND- 623 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... AT 619 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINCONNING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. MM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 631 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 MIZ063-070-031130- MACOMB-ST. CLAIR- 631 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... AT 627 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT CLEMENS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. * THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... NEW BALTIMORE BY 640 AM EDT... HARSENS ISLAND BY 650 AM EDT... ALGONAC BY 655 AM EDT... MARINE CITY BY 700 AM EDT... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. MM
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:01 UTC.
3 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 379270, 379271, 379274.