Damaging Winds in Kentucky, September 2, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
251 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

CLOUD COVER FROM THE LOW THAT WAS ISSAC CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
SPITE OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. OUR ERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO FEWER CLOUDS BUT HERE WE HAVE SEEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF TSRA RATHER THAN THE SHRA ACROSS THE MORE WRN COUNTIES. A
FEW TSRA HAVE PUSHED INTO SRN KY FROM TENN BUT THESE SEEM TO WEAKEN
AFTER THEY ARRIVE IN THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE AREAS OF KY. ALL THE
MODELS INITIALLY AGREE THAT THE LOW OVER CENTRL ILL WILL VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF PCPN IN OUR FCST...ALTHOUGH AFTER MONDAY EVENING...ANY
TSRA SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO JUST THE LATE AFTERNOON ON TUE. AT THAT
TIME THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN ACCORDING TO MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS OR...IN LINE WITH THE LONGER MODELS...SPLIT WITH THE MAIN
CORE OF THE SYSTEM GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE NEXT SHORT WAVE NOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND CARRIED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN AS THE CORE OF THE STORM
MOVES CLOSER TO ERN KY. THEN AS THE STORM EITHER WEAKENS OR SWEEPS TO
THE NE THE POSSIBILITY FOR PCPN WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL REALIZED BY OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST. THE
EXPECTED HEAVY CLOUD COVER AIDED BY PCPN WILL KEEP A TIGHT REIGN ON
THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE
LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE DAYS 3-7
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF
ISAAC...COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEMS...ALONG WITHE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT COMPLETELY BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER TO END THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MODELS BOTH AGREE ON
THIS...HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AS OF
NOW...THE GFS MODEL IS BRINGING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OFT MORE RELIABLE ECMWF. WITH
THAT IN MIND...DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE TWO LONG TERM
MODELS...WITH A BIAS TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL FOR THE WEATHER NEXT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE HE UPCOMING WEEKEND COULD BE WET.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME...WITH HIGHS ACHIEVING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES EACH DAY. THINGS WILL COOL OFF QUITE A BIT...HOWEVER...DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS
ACT TO DAMPEN THE SUNS INFLUENCE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE RISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 12 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THERE SHOULD BE OFF AND ON SHOWERS ALL DAY TODAY...SO JUST LEFT SOME
SHOWERS IN THE TAF UNTIL THE CIGS AND VSBYS BEGIN TO FALL LATER THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...HOWEVER YOU CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME TEMPO MVFR/IFR. DID NOT TRY TO
PUT THE TEMPO IFR IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN IS TODAY...IT MIGHT SET UP FOR
SOME DENSE FOG MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT SME FOR
THE TAF STATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031115-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
407 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND PRODUCE SOME VERY LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING
WITH DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAAC PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJ