Hail in Kentucky, May 5, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

WORKED OVER AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE/RESPONSIVE TO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ATTM...AND BELIEVE THAT WILL HOLD FOR
REMAINING PM HOURS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ESP FOR
THOSE LOCALES (MAINLY WKY) THAT DID RECEIVE THE HEAVIER RAINS.

OTHERWISE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN UPPER ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEREFORE THINK ANY PCPN CHANCES AT ALL
REMAINDER OF WEEKEND WILL BE SPARSE/ISOLATED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE/MOVE INTO FA MONDAY AND
POPS SHOULD SPIKE SHARPLY WITH ITS PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ALONG/AHEAD OF IT MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SWODY3 OUTLOOKS MUCH OF AREA IN SLGT RISK THEN.
LIKE THE GOING POP ON THIS EVENT AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OTHER
THAN MINOR MASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

ASIDE FROM A LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
PENNYRILE REGION ON TUE...CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO A DRIER...COOLER PATTERN AT THE SFC FOR THE PAH FCST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH FRI.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z GFS
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUGGEST THAT THE EFFECTS OF A BROAD
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH
AS OUR REGION. THE CR INIT BLEND YIELDED SOME LIMITED POPS FOR DAY
7/SAT...WHICH WAS LEFT IN FOR NOW. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER
INITIALLY...WITH A SUBTLE REBOUND IN TEMPS TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THE LOWER TROP EAST OF THE MS RIVER HAS BEEN STABILIZED FROM ALL THE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLIER TODAY. WE EXPECT NO MORE THAN SCT
COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...ANY BRIEF CIGS THAT MIGHT OCCUR WILL BE
VFR. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND GENERALLY SRLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE
REGION HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE AN ERLY COMPONENT AFTER DARK
BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/QUASI-STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY. POP IS
VERY LOW ATTM AND NO PCPN IS FORECAST IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
844 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-061000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
844 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.

AT THIS TIME...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST...BUT A LIMITING FACTOR
TO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS RELATIVELY WEAK WIND PROFILES. IF
SEVERE STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.