Flash Flood and Hail in Missouri, May 5 to 7, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES/SEVERITY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED
CAPES WERE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG AND HAVE SEEN
A STORM DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER JUST NORTH OF
BERRYVILLE AR. WE HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE HAS NOT MOVED
MUCH TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAY SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP. WIND SHEAR IS
ALMOST NIL SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE OR ORGANIZED STORMS.

WILL START TO SEE THE LOW AND SURFACE FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH TONIGHT IN THE PLAINS WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.
MAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ON SUNDAY...FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF AFTERNOON. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE 4000-5000 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY 20-25KTS OF SHEAR...CAPE WITHIN THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS FROM 1200-1400 J/KG AND THETA-E DIFFERENCE
VALUES OF -25 TO -35 DEG C WOULD SUGGEST THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...WHICH WOULD WARRANT ENOUGH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BELIEVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN
ADDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE FRONT CAN SLOW ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY...MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN
HANDLING OF THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK
WITH THE GFS BRINGING ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...WITH ECMWF KEEPING MAIN ENERGY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SPECIFIC TO THE BRANSON AIRPORT...PILOTS SHOULD MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS...AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP DOWN BY HARRISON.  THIS
ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT NORTH TOWARD BRANSON...AND WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST IF IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE AIRFIELD WILL BE IMPACTED.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO PERSIST...WHILE A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS CONTINUES.

CRAMER

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS AND WARM LOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

MAY 6TH...

SITE...REC HIGH...REC WARM LOW

SGF....90/1952...73/2007
JLN....90/2007...73/1940
UNO....89/1949...69/2007
VIH....88/1956...68/2007

BOXELL

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061915-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
  SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
  COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE WIND SHEAR WILL BE
  RELATIVELY WEAK...HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE
  POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
  RISK...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THOSE AREAS
  THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
  EAST OF U.S. 65. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER