5 inches of snow on portions of eastern Kentucky on March 5th. The heaviest snow fell along and north of the Mountain Parkway.
Every event with a place to put it; 34 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A fast moving area of low pressure dumped up to 6.5 inches of snow on portions of eastern Kentucky on March 5th. The heaviest snow fell along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Between 4 and 7 inches of snow fell in Fleming, Bath, Montgomery, Rowan, Menifee, Wolfe, Powell, Morgan, and Breathitt counties. The snow first began accumulating in Wolfe county around midnight of the 5th and continued to accumulate through 10 am Monday morning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 9:45 PM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 945 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 945 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 LAST BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA FOR THE MOMENT. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS ARE GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...NOT THAT FAR OFF FROM THE RIDGES. WITH WINDS AROUND THE VALLEYS GOING CALM AND CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE TIME FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S WHILE THE VALLEYS SLIP A BIT FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 20S. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHORT PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE TEMPS AND RH/S WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE EXTENT LOOKS TO BE TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE IN THE ZONES ATTM. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FLURRIES TOWARDS DAWN WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN IL. AT A MINIMUM...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD LIMIT FURTHER COOLING IN THE NORTH. HAVE STAYED ON THE PESSIMISSTIC SIDE AND BEEFED UP FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE WARRANTED ATTM. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL/IN THAT MAY TRY AN SNEAK INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPDATED GRIDS...WILL ISSUE REFRESHED PRODUCTS SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY SITS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE...WITH PLENTY OF STRATOCU NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY EXTENDS UP THE APPALACHIANS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM YESTERDAY. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES CLEAR ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY AND ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S IN MANY AREAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER SPREADS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND POTENTIAL IMPACT ON LOWS AND HIGHS. AS FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOME STRATOCU WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW EXTENSIVE THIS CLOUD COVER WILL END UP BEING AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL GOING TO GO COLDER IN THE VALLEYS AND PLAN FOR ENOUGH BREAKS TO GET VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE 20S. RIDGES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 30S. A BETTER SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL DIVE SOUTH ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY HELP AID IN THE OVERCAST SKIES. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH -10C...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE FLURRIES WILL DEPART SUNDAY EVENING AS CLOUD TOPS WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER TAKES A TURN BACK TOWARDS WINTER AS A FAST MOVING...BUT FAIRLY STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...AND CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG OMEGA WITHIN THIS MOIST LAYER. THIS SUGGEST A PRETTY DECENT SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE WILL NOT BE MUCH HELP EARLY ON...AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP AID IN SNOWFALL PRODUCTION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS AND HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL STORM IN AN SPS AND PLAN TO PUT A HEADLINE ON OUR WEB PAGE TO HIGHLIGHT IT AS WELL. RIGHT NOW...OPTING TO GO AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST (COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER)...TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MOST OTHER AREAS. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY STILL BE SLOW GOING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED START OFF IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THAT SIMILARITY BREAKS DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THEY ALL TAKE A POTENT SHORTWAVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY MONDAY AND THEREBY KICK THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA LATER THAT NIGHT. A GRADUAL BUILDING OF A RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION WILL THEN COMMENCE THROUGH MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEST...CENTERED ON A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA. THIS WESTERN TROUGH LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH... THOUGH...TO MOVE EAST AS A FULL LATITUDE ONE THROUGH THURSDAY. AROUND THIS TIME...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS STARTS TO LAG THE ECMWF AND...TO A CERTAIN EXTENT...THE GEM BY CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WHILE THE ECMWF ROLLS A WEAKER VERSION OF THIS LOW EAST INTO TEXAS. THESE MODEL DISCREPANCY TRENDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SEEMS TO FIT BETTER WITH THE ENSEMBLES SO ITS SOLUTION WAS FAVORED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TANDEM LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MAIN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS MODELED BY THE ECMWF TO SLOW AND DEEPEN OVER KENTUCKY AND THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS ALSO LIKELY NOT PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...SO HAVE SHIFTED THIS PATTERN MORE EAST DURING THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THAT SEEMS TO BE A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE DEEP...CLOSED AND CUT OFF...UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z GFS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE EXIT...ON MONDAY...OF A COMPACT CLIPPER THAT WILL HAVE LIKELY LEFT BEHIND A THICK SKIFF OF SNOW EARLIER...SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW CHANCES WILL END IN THE FAR EAST MONDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON IN THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM/S WAKE. INITIALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND MODERATING WITH SIGNIFICANT WAA ON ITS BACKSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SLOW APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...AND BOTH A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LOW...WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO FEED INTO EAST KENTUCKY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ANTICIPATED PROGRESSIVE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. UNLIKE MOST OF THE FROPAS SO FAR THIS WINTER...THIS ONE MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF TAPPING THE COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON ITS BACK EDGE. AGAIN GOING WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO...WILL BRING THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY SNOW...AND ANOTHER COOL WEEKEND A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE GRID LOAD CAME IN PRETTY GOOD SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK FOR TERRAIN. DID ALSO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND SKY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF RATHER THAN THE BLEND WITH GFS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 WLY WINDS AROUND ERN KY AT ISSUANCE WERE STILL GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS BUT THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT BASES SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER 12Z WHEN CIGS COULD START TO BUILD DOWN INTO MVFR AS WLY WINDS REDEVELOP... WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRAY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS POINT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO MATERIALIZE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...MB SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM....GREIF AVIATION...MB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 945 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-050545- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 945 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGH WATER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KENTUCKY...RED...LICKING...AND CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH WATER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER AND IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN ON SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SLICK ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. JP/MB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
801 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0705 PM TORNADO 4 W EAST BERNSTADT 37.19N 84.19W
03/02/2012 LAUREL KY NWS STORM SURVEY
*** 5 FATAL *** A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 4.3 MILES WEST OF
EAST BERNSTADT AND MOVED NORTHEAST BEFORE LIFTING 3.6
MILES NNE OF EAST BERNSTADT. PATH LENGTH WAS 6.3 MILES.
THE TORNADO LIFTED AT 712 PM EST.
&&
SBHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
928 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0539 PM TORNADO 2 SW MARIBA 37.89N 83.60W
03/02/2012 MENIFEE KY NWS STORM SURVEY
*** 8 FATAL *** A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MARIBA AND MOVED EAST ACROSS MENIFEE AND MORGAN
COUNTIES FOR 34 MILES. THIS TORNADO HIT WEST LIBERTY
KENTUCKY AND REACHED A MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF EF3. THERE
WERE 2 FATALITIES IN MENIFEE COUNTY AND 6 FATALITIES IN
MORGAN COUNTY.
&&
SBHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1021 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0651 PM TORNADO 1 E CUTUNO 37.72N 83.22W
03/02/2012 MAGOFFIN KY NWS STORM SURVEY
*** 2 FATAL *** A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 1 MILE EAST OF
CUTUNO AND MOVED EAST ACROSS MAGOFFIN...JOHNSON AND
MARTIN COUNTIES KENTUCKY BEFORE MOVING INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS TORNADO CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN
MAGOFFIN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES AND REACHED MAXIMUM
STRENGTH OF EF3. THERE WERE 2 FATALITIES IN JOHNSON
COUNTY.
&&
SBHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
18 winter weather, 16 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Five inches of snow fell 5 miles north of Mt. Sterling.
The snowfall accumulation 4 miles northeast of Jackson was 1.9 inches.
Two inches of snow had fallen with heavy snow and half dollar size flakes occurring at the time the report was called in.
Two and four tenths of an inch of snow had fallen at the Jackson weather office.
Three inches of snow fell at the Jackson weather office.
Three and nine tenths of an inch of snow fell at the Jackson weather office.
Five and four tenths of an inch of snow fell in Rogers.
Four inches of snow fell in Relief.
Three tenths of an inch of snow fell 2 miles east southeast of Talbert.
Four and four tenths of an inch of snow was measured at the Jackson weather office.
Three and a half inches of snow fell 4 miles north of Beattyville.
Two and six tenths of an inch of snow fell 2 miles west of Stanton.
Three inches of snow fell in Cressy.
Three inches of snow fell 4 miles northeast of Slade.
An inch of snow fell 1 mile south southeast of Ned.
Two inches of snow fell in Rousseau.
Heavy snow was falling at the time of the report. Roads were snow covered and slick 1 mile east of Bethany. The snow reduced visibility to a few hundred feet on the ridgetop along the Breathitt and Wolfe county line.
Four and eight tenths of an inch of snow fell 3 miles northwest of West Liberty.
Two and a half inches of snow fell 4 miles west southwest of Prestonsburg.
Five inches of snow fell in Morehead.
Five inches of snow fell 1 mile north of Coon.
Three and two tenths of an inch of snow fell in Beattyville.
Six and a half inches of snow fell 1 mile south of Farmers.
Five and two tenths of an inch of snow fell in Howards Mill.
Four and a half inches of snow fell in Hillsboro.
Three inches of snow fell in Salyersville.
Four and a half inches of snow fell in Foraker.
Six inches of new snow at a CoCoRaHS station located on the Bath/Nicholas County line 8.1 miles east-southeast of Carlisle, KY.
It is estimated from nearby reporting stations that from five to seven inches of snow fell across Menifee County.
Three inches of snow fell 2 miles east of Inez.
Three tenths of an inch of snow accumulated in 30 minutes 4 miles west southwest of Prestonsburg.
A little over an inch of snow had fallen 4 miles west southwest of Prestonsburg.
Four and seven tenths of an inch of snow fell 2 miles west southwest of Kerz.
Three inches of snow fell in Inez.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 365469, 365452, 365453, 365456, 365459, 365460, 365461, 365462, 365464, 365473, 365497, 365498, 365501, 365502, 365504, 365505, 365449, 365470, 365477, 365483, 365493, 365494, 365496, 365499, 365500, 365506, 365507, 370505, 370508, 365480, 365455, 365457, 365495, 365503.