Flood and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, July 26 to 27, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AIR MASS OVER EAST KY WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE. LATEST GOES SOUNDER SHOWS LIFTED INDICES FROM -3 TO -5
OVER AREA...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN EAST KY LOOKS VERY LIMITED
DUE TO TIMING OF WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD ENTER THE AREA. BEST ESTIMATE
AT THIS TIME IS FOR CONVECTION TO ENTER THE FAR NORTH AROUND 8 PM.
WITH BEST FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FACT THAT WE
WILL BE LOSING DAYTIME HEATING DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION THAT ENTERS
OUR AREA TO MAINTAIN SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS...IF IT IS SEVERE TO
BEGIN WITH...VERY FAR SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS ALSO A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEAR
TERM AS TO TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM HAD BEEN
FAVORING THE HRRR WHICH HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL RUNS IN
A ROW SHOWING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTH PART OF OUR AREA AROUND 01Z. HOWEVER THE LATEST...15Z RUN IS
KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH 06Z. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICE TIMING...CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...ANALYSIS AND MODEL BLENDS.

ALL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE PRE FRONTAL...AND WITH THE FRONT YET
TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE YET AGAIN...AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES
AND OH VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA...AND SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
FRIDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY THOUGH. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY FOR ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION AND ALSO CHANCE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AT THE
END OF WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE BECOME
ESTABLISHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
REGION ENDING UP IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST AND DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED TROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO A RATHER QUIET AND PLEASANT PATTERN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND YIELD MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY HAVE A DIURNAL COMPONENT
TO IT...BUT MCS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE THE GREATEST THREAT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LOW ATTM...ALTHOUGH
MODELS TO POINT TOWARD SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON MON NIGHT.
WE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SW LATE ON SUN NIGHT WITH
CHANCE POPS WITH THE DIURNAL FLAVOR FROM THEN ON.

AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM TUE NIGHT
ON. MIN T ON SAT NIGHT...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MAY BE THE LOWEST
OBSERVED SO FAR THIS MONTH IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...THOUGH THERE WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 01Z IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR. ONCE
THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUD TO PERSIST INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052.

&&

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SBH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

KYZ044-050>052-271200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD
353 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WIND OR FLASH FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271200-
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
353 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WIND OR FLASH FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
623 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

KYZ044-051-052-262315-
ROWAN-BATH-FLEMING-
623 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 715
PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING...

   NORTHERN ROWAN...
   NORTHWESTERN BATH AND
   FLEMING.

AT 623 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHARPSBURG...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARIS...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...COWAN AROUND
630 PM EDT...PECKS RIDGE AROUND 635 PM EDT...POPLAR PLAINS AROUND 640
PM EDT...WALLINGFORD AROUND 645 PM EDT...MUSES MILLS AROUND 650 PM
EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

ABE