A strong cold front moving across the southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley served as the focus for thunderstorm development. Unseasonably moist air characterized by surface dew points in the mid 60's helped generate thunderstorms with heavy rain.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A strong cold front moving across the southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley served as the focus for thunderstorm development. Unseasonably moist air characterized by surface dew points in the mid 60's helped generate thunderstorms with heavy rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 9, 6:03 PM CST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 603 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 TORNADO WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. HERE ARE THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON SEVERE WEATHER. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THOSE WATCHES THAT IS LOW CONFIDENCE...IN CASE A SPIN UP OR TWO WERE TO OCCUR. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MODERATE TO MAJOR ORDEAL. SO...STILL WAIT AND SEE ON THE PROSPECTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. DESPITE WHAT SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE STORMS...OTHERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. CRAVEN/BROOKS SIG SEVERE VALUES ARE NOT TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SRH6*SBCAPE COMPUTATIONS SKEW/D ON THE LOW SIDE. AND...DESPITE 500 CAPES...MLYR CAPE IS LOWER. 30-40 KT JET IS NOT JUXTAPOSED WITH BEST UPPER JET FEATURE. AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TERRIBLY STEEP EITHER. NOW HAVING SAID THAT BASED ON THE THE RUC/MESO ANALYSIS...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS AND WILL HEAD NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AND BETTER PHASING OF THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE STRENGTHENING CONVECTION... AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z/01Z AS A SFC WAVE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE AREA AND ENDS UP OVER SRN INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06-09Z. REMOVED THE SMALL MIX MENTION FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AM STILL A LITTLE BIT CONCERNED WITH THE NAM...BUT CONSENSUS SEEMS TO DEVIATE AWAY FROM THAT. OTHERWISE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...IT WILL BE COLDER BUT DRY...AND MORE DECEMBER LIKE. USED A BLEND OF MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ..NOLES.. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND A MODERATING AIR MASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN. THE MED RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT DAY 5...WITH THE DEPICTION OF INCREASINGLY SWRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID/UPPER TROF IN THE SWRN CONUS. LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE SRLY/SWRLY THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...INCREASING IN SPEED BY DAY 6 /SAT/ AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND OVER THE WEEKEND /DAYS 6-7/ THE MED RANGE MODELS HAD DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE LOW...PLUS OTHER POSSIBLE NRN STREAM SHRTWVS. THE INITIALIZATION BLEND PROVIDED A SOLUTION FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE HPC PREFERENCE...WHICH IS TO USE MAINLY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THAT TIME FRAME...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DOMINATES THE PATTERN AND EJECTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HPC TEMPS WERE ALSO BLENDED INTO OUR FORECAST...WHICH HAD SOME EFFECT ON DAYS 6-7 TEMPS...WHICH WERE REALLY AN EDUCATED GUESS. IT SEEMS THE WARMING TREND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS REFLECTED...DUE PARTLY TO THE ECMWF PATTERN WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRI NIGHT/SAT...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW IS PROGGED TO OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT/SAT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ISOLD IF THEY OCCUR. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH CHAOS IN THE MODELS TO DETERMINE STORM STRENGTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SOME CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN INTERVALS OF IFR VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW. WHILE CIGS NEAR THE CONVECTION MAY GO MVFR OR VFR AT TIMES...IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR THE FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR SURGES IN FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MON. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && AVIATION...DB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1035 AM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-101100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1035 AM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FROM ABOUT ROUTE 13 SOUTH...AND MOST OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. SHOULD SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...THE CENTER INDICATES DAMAGING WINDS... MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH...AND BRIEF...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE EAST TO NORTHEAST 40 TO 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
416 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0410 PM HAIL ROMBAUER 36.84N 90.28W
12/09/2012 E0.75 INCH BUTLER MO EMERGENCY MNGR
DIME SIZE HAIL IN ROMBAUER.
&&
DPSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 437 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 ILZ088-092-093-MOZ087-111-092315- ALEXANDER IL-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-PULASKI IL-SCOTT MO-UNION IL- 437 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALEXANDER...UNION AND PULASKI COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND EASTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 515 PM CST... AT 430 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM....ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... JONESBORO...ANNA...HORSESHOE LAKE CONSERVATION AREA...MOUNDS... TAMMS...WARE...DONGOLA...COBDEN...KARNAK...PULASKI...MILL CREEK... ULLIN...OLMSTED AND NEW GRAND CHAIN.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM FLOOD CARMI 38.09N 88.17W
12/09/2012 WHITE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER OVER ROADS IN PARTS OF CARMI.
&&
DPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
534 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NE DONIPHAN 36.73N 90.69W
12/09/2012 RIPLEY MO EMERGENCY MNGR
FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS ROADWAYS BARN AND OUTBUILDING
DESTROYED.
&&
DPThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Locally heavy rainfall of around an inch per hour caused some roads to become covered with water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 422154.