Hail in Kansas, June 10, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW VCTS IN TAFS UNTIL TSRA BECOMES MORE IMMINENT
DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE
ON MONDAY.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

SYNOPSIS:
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MT DOWN TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NEAR RUSSELL TO NEAR PRATT. BASED ON REGIONAL
88DS AND OBS THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE COLD
FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. VERY RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND OK WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S APPROACHING 70.

TONIGHT:
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KS AROUND 4 PM AND FILL DOWN THE COLD
FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS AFTER 5 PM. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND DARK FOR SOME BRIEF SPIN-UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT
GIVEN STEEP 0-2KM LAPSE RATES AND SOME SURFACE VORTICITY ALONG THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LINE SEGMENT/SMALL BOW DIVE ACROSS SE KS/SOUTHERN MO PRODUCING AN
ENHANCED WIND THREAT.

MON-TUE:
BY MON MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM CENTRAL MO INTO
CENTRAL OK. EVEN WITH LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...FEEL A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE TURNPIKE ON
MON WITH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. BY TUE THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING PRECIP
CHANCES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO LOWER TEMPS WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR BOTH OF THESE
DAYS. HOWEVER THE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL PROVIDE A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS.

WED-SUN:
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT FOR SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE FOCUS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING
AND LOCATION. HOWEVER WITH AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS FEEL THAT 850-700MB
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAYBE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON PRIMARILY WED. BY THU UPPER
TROUGHING WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW NOT THAT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES AFTER
WED AS CAPPING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 90 BY SUN.

LAWSON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATED ALONG
A LINE FROM NEAR KRSL TO KGBD TO KGAG AT 18Z. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS THIS FRONT REACHES
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21-23Z SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  87  62  86 /  50  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  88  59  86 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          65  88  61  86 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        68  87  61  85 /  50  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  87  63  86 /  50  40  10  10
RUSSELL         55  87  55  86 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  87  56  87 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          60  89  56  86 /  30  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  88  59  86 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  86  62  84 /  50  50  20  10
CHANUTE         71  85  60  85 /  60  50  10  10
IOLA            70  85  60  86 /  60  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  86  61  84 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
429 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-111245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
429 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM NEAR SALINA AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS HARPER COUNTY. THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM
OF A LINE MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 70 MPH. HOWEVER OUTFLOW AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE
SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STORMS WILL LINGER OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

A SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL BEING DEPICTED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE A STRONG
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

LAWSON