Damaging Winds in Indiana, May 4, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT FRI MAY 04 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Saturday night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT May 4 2012

Main concern is in the near term, as a bowing line of thunderstorms
over SW Indiana approaches the area. Expect severe winds and
excessive lightning, mainly in the I-64 corridor for the next few
hours, and the short-term will key on that. Environment south of WW
238 is fairly capped, and POPs heading into early evening will be
limited to 20-30 in those areas. Routine forecast products will be
taking a back seat to statements and warnings, especially as this
activity traverses the Louisville Metro roughly between 5 and 6 PM.

Still taking models with a grain of salt as they have not locked on
with what is going on now. That said, still carrying low-end likely
POPs for tonight as the front drops southward to near the Ohio
River. SVR threat should be diminishing rapidly around sunset.

General trend in POP on Saturday will be downward, but it is
too difficult to time any impulses in the flow aloft. With a front
hung up across Kentucky and still a juicy atmosphere, will not drop
POPs below 20-30, and that will be late in the day. Actually taper
down to a dry forecast Saturday night.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT May 4 2012

With a weak sfc front situated over the area Sunday, isolated
showers/t-storms will be possible Sunday and Sunday evening.
However, an upper ridge will become established over the area on
Sunday limiting convective development.  A cap is apparent for Sun
afternoon on GFS soundings.

By late Sun night/early Monday morning, pre-frontal convection ahead
of an approaching cold front will enter our western forecast area.
Latest models indicate that we would be warm sectored on Monday with
convection likely in a warm moist unstable environment.  The cold
front looks to pass through the region Monday night with perhaps the
strongest convection accompanying the front or just ahead of the
front where the best dynamics are available.  It's a little tough to
nail down timing at this point, but strong to possibly severe storms
look possible Monday afternoon/night.

Sunday/Monday temperatures will be warm in the low to mid 80s for
highs and mid to upper 60s for lows.

Following the cold front, the rest of the week will be cooler
(slightly below normal).  Some lingering showers will stick around
with waves in the upper trough behind the cold front.  A rumble of
thunder may still be possible early Tues.  Models vary on how
quickly the upper trough will move east into the New England
states.  Most models follow a more progressive soln like the 12Z
GFS.  However, the ECMWF and a few ensemble members indicate a
slower solution so will keep POPs in through Wed.  May need to
remove them if models lock onto a more progressive soln.
Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s for highs
Tues-Fri.  Thurs-Fri look dry at this point with upper ridging over
the area.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT May 4 2012

Juicy low-level atmosphere has allowed quite a bit of strato-cu to
develop, especially over SDF and LEX which are now carrying high-end
MVFR ceilings.

Low-confidence forecast especially at SDF and LEX. Could make a
strong argument to carry VCTS for much of the next 24 hrs, but very
difficult to pin down any better than that.  Will start VCTS around
mid-afternoon as convection pops in the heat of the day, and carry
it through the night as one or more complexes may roll through, with
the front dropping ever closer to the Ohio River. BWG is the only
point that I have real confidence in, or at least believe the most
likely scenario is no storms. Included some MVFR fog for BWG around
daybreak, while SDF and LEX will likely be convection or nothing.

For Saturday the front hangs up very close to SDF and LEX. Will keep
a variable wind directon there. So hard to time any convective
impulses, that the best course of action seems to be VFR with a
mid-level ceiling. BWG should stay south of the front with light SW
winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>036-038>041-045>048-053>056-
051930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-NELSON KY-
WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-
329 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012 /229 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...THEREFORE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 PM EDT...9 PM CDT. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A SERIOUS THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE
FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KYZ037-042-043-049-057-061>067-070>078-081-082-051930-
HARRISON KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-CLARK KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-
METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
329 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012 /229 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE
FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAS/AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
248 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

INZ083-042015-
DUBOIS-
248 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING DUBOIS COUNTY...

AT 243 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS CROSSING THE
WABASH RIVER. THESE STORMS WILL ENTER DUBOIS COUNTY BY 4 PM.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. REMAIN ALERT FOR CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JASPER...
  PORTERSVILLE...
  MILLERSPORT AND IRELAND...
  DUFF...
  THALES AND KELLERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 8698 3849 8695 3851 8694 3850 8688
      3853 8684 3853 8669 3832 8668 3825 8674
      3825 8679 3820 8679 3820 8707 3851 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 286DEG 23KT 3885 8732 3812 8791

RAS