Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 4, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

.UPDATE...

OVERNIGHT:
AN ISOLD +TSRA HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER BARBER COUNTY. WITH CELL MOVG
NE25KTS HAVE UPDATED SC KS ALONG & W OF I-135 TO ASSIGN 30-40% POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012/

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

AVIATION CONCERNS STILL REMAIN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR EARLY FRI
MORNING.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE. STILL EXPECTING
VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 3-6SM AFTER 09Z. IN ADDITION SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO CREEP INTO CENTRAL KS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS WHERE SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE POOLING AND
REDUCED MIXING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT STORMS WILL STAY
NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES.

MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE IS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE STORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTWARD EXTENT. IT APPEARS THAT WARM MID
LEVELS WILL CAUSE STORMS TO REALLY STRUGGLE TO WORK BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CHANCES REMAINING OVER FAR NORTHEAST KS.
AM RELUCTANT TO PULL POPS ALL TOGETHER GIVEN SOME GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 310K SURFACE. ALSO MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT IS SITUATED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS. WARM MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD LIMIT STORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST KS. WITH LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT MORE SITES
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 3-6SM LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT
SHORT TERM MESO ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS SHOW AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT PEAK
HEATING. A REMNANT MESO/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THIS AREA
AND TRAILING WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SAGGING SYNOPTIC FRONT/SURFACE
TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY EVENING. ANY POTENTIAL UPDRAFTS
WILL STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME AT LEAST SOME WEAK CAPPING...THOUGH AT
LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE WICHITA METRO. THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EASILY OFFSET THE MODEST SHEAR FOR SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP. STORM SCALE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO FESTER
INTO A PORTION OF TONIGHT THOUGH A WARMER/VEERING ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO CAP/LESSEN CHANCES OR PUSH THEM INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING GRIDS NEEDED IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD ALSO LAY OUT ANOTHER
MESO/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW ON
FRIDAY...AS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT/BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LIMITING OR SQUELCHING CHANCES FOR THE MOST
PART. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH COULD RIVAL SOME RECORD MAXS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY
A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO EJECT NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
MODERATE STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS KANSAS. THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT...THOUGH EXPECT ONE MORE RELATIVELY
WARM DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP/CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY ALLOWING SOME WIGGLE ROOM IN CASE THE
FRONT SLOWS DOWN FROM RECENT TRENDS.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY
THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN SHOWING A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE A CLOSED
LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS INTO THE BAJA
REGION OF NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS SUPPORTS NOT ONLY A COOLER BUT
DRIER REGIME...SO WILL OPT TO LOWER OR REMOVE POPS.

DARMOFAL

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RISE INTO THE 3-5K FT LEVEL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AREA OR ALONG
A DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS. LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS STATE LINE MAY IMPACT KCNU AFTER
09Z...BUT ONCE AGAIN BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CIGS RETURNING TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE AFTER 09Z WHICH HAS BEEN
RATHER PERSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND TRENDED TAFS TOWARD
THIS SCENARIO.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  90  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      66  92  66  93 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  91  68  92 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        69  90  68  91 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  89  69  90 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELL         63  93  63  94 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  94  62  95 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          66  92  67  93 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  92  67  93 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         69  88  69  89 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            69  89  69  90 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  69  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
930 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-042030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
930 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND RELATIVELY BRIEF NATURE OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

DARMOFAL/LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

KSZ067-082-040615-
KINGMAN-RENO-
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KINGMAN AND RENO COUNTIES...

AT 1243 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CUNNINGHAM...OR 15 MILES EAST OF
PRATT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN KINGMAN AND SOUTHWESTERN RENO COUNTIES...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
IF THE STORM MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO
SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9824 3772 9807 3751 9846 3753 9847
      3774 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 233DEG 20KT 3764 9843

SCHMINKE