Wet conditions in late January brought the Ohio River above flood stage. A complex storm system moved east out of the Plains on the 22nd.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Wet conditions in late January brought the Ohio River above flood stage. A complex storm system moved east out of the Plains on the 22nd. Warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air fueled showers and even some thunderstorms. This line of storms was slow-moving with torrential rainfall. Rain amounts averaged around one inch. This system stalled over the Deep South, then was pulled back north as an upper-level closed low opened up and passed across the Ohio Valley by the 29th. The combination of the surface front and the upper-level trough produced scattered showers that produced another one-half to one inch of rain between the 25th and 29th. This heavy rain caused the Ohio River to rise above flood stage by the end of the month. Only minor flooding occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 27, 11:43 AM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1143 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. PUBLIC FORECAST PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED EARLIER TO CATCH UP TO THE WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. THE OTHER SECTIONS OF THIS DISCUSSION ARE UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... EARLY THIS MORNING...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WAS HEADING ON OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...AS LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ECNTRL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF OUR AREA...AND HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS ALONG THE KANSAS / MISSOURI BORDER...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TIMING THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES IN SOME AREAS...AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS FROM THE RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE WIND MAY HOLD UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE CONCERN FOR FOG. GFS/NAM MOS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPS. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. UVV/S ARE NOT TOO BAD WITH THE FEATURE. BUT MOISTURE IS NOT EXACTLY ROBUST....MOSTLY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...WHILE TRYING TO SATURATE DOWN. BUFR SOUNDING DATA / TOP DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN...AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW / FLURRIES. WE BACKED OFF THE IDEA OF JUST SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY LIGHT RAIN IN THE EVENING...A SMALL CHANCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. AFTER 06Z...SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN...AND A LIGHT SNOW / FLURRY MIX MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 13 AND THE OHIO RIVER IN THE KEVV TRI STATE. GENERALLY FAVORED THE NAM...BUT THE GFS IS SIMILAR. SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING...AND SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...AS A BROAD TROF SETS UP OVER THE NE CONUS...AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE OUR REGION AND THE SOUTHERN STATES. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WEAK FAST MOVING ENERGY TRACKS WITHIN THE BROAD TROF. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO LATE JANUARY NORMS. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MOISTENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN VERY MINIMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... MAINTAINED GOING SMALL THUNDER CHANCE MAINLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY FOR CONSISTENCY AND COLLABORATION. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS...QUITE FRANKLY...UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT. THE 26/00Z AND 26/12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF SYNC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A COMPARISON OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FROM THE 26/18Z AND 27/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS ACTUALLY YIELDS A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT ECMWF...GEM...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN SHORT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS A COMMON THEME...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. UNTIL THIS TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH OUR REGION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. AS A RESULT...WE EXTENDED SMALL RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. THIS APPROACH EXPRESSES SAID UNCERTAINTY...WHILE MAINTAINING FLEXIBILITY TO ADJUST AS NEEDED ONCE GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ATTAINED THROUGH FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION... MVFR CLOUD DECK EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS HOLDING STRONG...AND WOULD EXPECT IT TO HOLD OVER MOST SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA...AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE END OF THE DAY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED THICKER AND MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO WILL NOT SEE MUCH SUNSHINE EVEN AFTER THE MVFR CEILINGS CLEAR. AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE 07Z-13Z TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS AT KEVV...BUT FARTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTH STRADDLING SUNRISE. SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM...AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20KTS AT TIMES SATURDAY MORNING. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && AVIATION/UPDATE....DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 340 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-281100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 340 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING AND STATEMENT PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of low-lying fields occurred along the Ohio River. The river crested on the 30th and then began to fall.
Minor flooding of low-lying fields occurred along the Ohio River. The river continued rising into early February.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, January 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 357066, 357067.