Hail in Illinois, March 15, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
617 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

ANOTHER MCV IN THE VICINITY OF LIVINGSTON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HAS DEVELOP ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS
STORMS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE PULSY LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE AIRMASS IS OVER OUR AREA...WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI SURVIVE DEEP INTO
OUR AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN FOUR COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT.

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

BEEN REAL BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY...SO WILL BE BRIEF. THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS BASICALLY THE SAME...WARM AND
HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST SOME
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANYTHING THAT MAKES IT INTO THE WEST SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SEE LITTLE
TANGIBLE REASON FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...SO
TRENDED QUICKLY DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MCV THIS
EVENING.

COULD SEE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST...SO RAMPED CHANCE POPS BACK UP A BIT THEN. WILL
SEE A LULL WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. BACK TO DIURNAL CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN IT SEEMS THAT THE RIDGE MAY FINALLY
DRY US OUT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST
LIFTS AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN
CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND SHOULD START REACHING AT LEAST OUR WESTERN SECTIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS AND THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST BREAKS DOWN.

WENT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO MEX VALUES AS THE BLENDED APPROACH
LOWERS THEM TOO FAST. ALSO RAISED DEW POINTS BASED UPON CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOS GOING TOO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE TAF SITES...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. MAY SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TSRA AFTER 16Z FRIDAY SO
INCLUDED CB AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-162345-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
632 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD
STATE REGION TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT
OF THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. IN ADDITION... LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
859 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PATTON JUNCTION         37.46N 90.03W
03/15/2012                   BOLLINGER          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AREAS OF HWY 72 AND 51 ARE REPORTED UNDER WATER

&&

JAYSONW