Hail and Damaging Winds in Illinois, July 2, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

ISOLATED STORMS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP ALONG THE MS RIVER
BETWEEN PAH AND STL AND UP ALONG THE I 64 CORRIDOR...WHERE CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED UP INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG CATEGORY. OPTED
TO UP POPS IN THESE ARES FOR THE MID/LATE MORNING INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES ALSO HAD SOARED QUICKER THAN EXPECTED
IN MANY LOCATIONS...SO ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST HERE ALSO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE MAY GET LUCKY AGAIN TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHERE PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED.

BASED ON THE POSITION OF WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY FIRE
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AROUND MIDDAY...
THEN MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE NOSE OF
THE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH
LACK OF HEATING/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT. ON TUESDAY
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER THE EXTREME
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE AREA.

EVEN WITH SMALL PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MAX OUT
EACH AFTERNOON AT OR JUST BELOW THE CENTURY MARK WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EASTWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE PARCHED GROUND IN THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA ACROSS OUR
REGION. A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 100 EACH DAY.
WILL USE THIS MODEL BLEND FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY
END UP BEING CONSERVATIVE IF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ARE ANY
INDICATION OF THE IMPACT OF SOIL MOISTURE ON TEMPS. HEAT HEADLINES
WILL BE REQUIRED IF THIS IS THE CASE.

AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY OVER SW INDIANA AND WEST
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BASED ON INDICATIONS OF A WEAK VORT CENTER SLIDING
SOUTH ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

BY DAY 7 /SUNDAY/...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD MIGRATION
AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND DAY 7...UNUSUALLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
SLIGHT COOLING OVER OUR REGION...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

HAVE BEEN ADVISED THAT THE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH
AFTN CONVECTION PAST DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO AT LEAST
MENTION VCTS UP NORTH AT KEVV/KOWB SITES...WHERE NAM FOCUSES BAND
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...NEAR DEW POINT
GRADIENT. ANOTHER REASON I WANTED TO GET SOME MENTION OF TS IN
THERE IS BECAUSE IF STORMS DO FORM WITH TEMPS UP NEAR 100...
STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS WOULD BE A MAJOR CONCERN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....MY
AVIATION...GM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-031000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1048 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL 6 PM CDT. REFER TO THE WARNING PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
NUMEROUS BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

FINALLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AREA WIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NORTH OF A MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO
CALHOUN KENTUCKY LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES MANAGE TO FIRE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME
TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING. PLEASE REMEMBER COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SPOTTY...HOWEVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY...
THEN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW...AND COVERAGE
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THUS NO BONAFIDE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO OUR EXISTING EXTREME DROUGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1002 AM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NW TUNNEL HILL        37.58N 88.92W
07/01/2012                   JOHNSON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 4 INJ *** A TREE FELL ON A DECK IN THE ROBINWOOD
            SUBDIVISION NEAR LAKE OF EGYPT...INJURING FOUR PEOPLE.

&&

DB