A cluster of nearly stationary thunderstorms developed across south central Kentucky during the afternoon hours on July 2nd. Eventually these storms coalesced along a line extending southeastward from southern Ohio County, across Warren County, and into northern Allen County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A cluster of nearly stationary thunderstorms developed across south central Kentucky during the afternoon hours on July 2nd. Eventually these storms coalesced along a line extending southeastward from southern Ohio County, across Warren County, and into northern Allen County. The strongest and most persistent cells developed across Warren County. They produced flooding rain, marginally severe hail, and damaging wind gusts. Several other storms produced isolated damaging wind gusts across several surrounding counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 1:21 PM CST, 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012
.Short Term (This Evening through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon July 2 2012
Main concern for this evening will deal with thunderstorm chances
and continued hot conditions. A look at the current visible
satellite imagery shows swelling Cu and a few showers and storms
popping up across the area. Best area of coverage is expected to be
west of I-65 where better moisture convergence has been ongoing all
day. This is in response to a weak surface low over the middle
Mississippi River Valley. A boundary of higher instability on the
order of 1500-2500 J/KG is evident where moisture has pooled. A few
of the strongest storms could go pulse severe, despite the lack of
any real wind profile. The main threats will be damaging winds and
large hail. Have upped coverage of thunderstorms to 40 percent
through the early evening hours as colliding outflow boundaries will
likely create a cluster of storms at times.
Also of concern, temperatures are currently running in the lower to
upper 90s. These temperatures combined with dew points in the mid to
upper 60s is creating heat indices in the 103 to 108 range in the
advisory area. Will leave this headline going through tonight. Will
not extend heat advisory into tomorrow as temperatures are expected
to be another couple of degrees cooler and convective chances could
really wreak havoc on a temperature forecast.
Tonight should see convection winding down in the late evening and
overnight periods. East of I-65, expect storms to die off a couple
of hours earlier as less moisture and instability will yield fewer
storms. Looking for lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tuesday should bring a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms
as environment will be uncapped with weakening ridge. With the
coverage of storms and more cloud cover, temperatures are expected
to be a little cooler, topping out in the mid and upper 90s. Will
keep the second half of Tuesday night dry with lows again in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2012
Center of the high pressure aloft will be more over the Mississippi
River Valley Wednesday, continuing to allow for at least slight
chances of storms as well as a little cooler thicknesses across our
region. By the end of the work week, that ridge looks to build back
into the Midwest, forcing the storm track more to our north. We may
still see some storms over the Appalachians as well, but our
forecast area looks to dry out and warm back up again for the
weekend. The next chance for rain looks to come Monday as models
continue to show troughing drop into south central Canada and
forcing the ridge more into the Central and southern Plains.
Do not see any reason right now not to keep highs well into the 90s
for most of the period. Monday would be the exception, as that
trough tries to get in here and lower thicknesses. Have the
forecast going only to around 90 then.
&&
.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon July 2 2012
Expecting VFR conditions outside of any thunderstorm activity this
afternoon and evening. At this point, the best coverage of
thunderstorms is expected to be west of I-65 where better moisture
is converging ahead of a weak surface low near the Ohio/Wabash
confluence. This would give BWG the best shot at a thunderstorm
between 5 PM EDT and 11 PM EDT. Will include a mention of VCTS/CB at
this site during this time. Will leave mention out of SDF/LEX for
now as coverage is expected to be less, however best timing if
thunder needs to be added would be 6 PM EDT to 10 PM EDT. Any
thunderstorm would briefly drop conditions to MVFR or worse.
Otherwise, expect VFR through the period with generally southwest
winds between 5 and 10 mph this afternoon. Winds could become gusty
and variable with thunderstorm outflow boundaries moving around by
evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ023>032-053-061>063-070>074.
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........BJSHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 357 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012 KYZ033>043-045>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082-032300- HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY- ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY- WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY- GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY- MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT... GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES... LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD... HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...LEBANON...DANVILLE... LANCASTER...RICHMOND...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY... STANFORD...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN... BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 357 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012 /257 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. FUTURE HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE). INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>032-053-061>063-070>074-032300- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN- PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY- MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY- OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-LARUE KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-LOGAN KY- WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON... JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG... BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX... MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE... BEDFORD...HODGENVILLE...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE... RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW 357 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012 /257 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012/ ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. HEAT INDICES WILL MAX OUT BETWEEN 100 TO 105 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THUS A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. FUTURE HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE). BJS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 316 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012 KYC031-021945- BUTLER KY- 216 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS... AT 215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MORGANTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. * THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT... MORGANTOWN... FLENER... WELCOME... MONFORD... HULDEVILLE... THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 28. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO... WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && LAT...LON 3732 8660 3718 8660 3718 8678 3726 8679 TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 263DEG 7KT 3724 8668 AMS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 331 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012 KYC009-061-227-022000- WARREN KY-BARREN KY-EDMONSON KY- 231 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS... AT 229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 55 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. * THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT... HAYS AND RHODA... ROCKY HILL AND PIG... CEDAR SPRING... UNION CITY AND PARK CITY... THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 36 AND 48. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO... WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && LAT...LON 3710 8636 3722 8609 3703 8596 3694 8626 TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 244DEG 10KT 3706 8620 RS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0942 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ENE MIDWAY 38.16N 84.64W
07/01/2012 SCOTT KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
LOCALIZED AREA OF TREES DOWNED BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
NEAR INTERSECTION OF CANE RUN ROAD AND IRONWORKS ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1200705
ZTLSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 344 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012 KYC031-183-022015- OHIO KY-BUTLER KY- 244 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS... AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARTFORD...AND DRIFTING EAST AT 5 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 55 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. * THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT... SANDEFUR CROSSING AND LOGANSPORT... CROMWELL... OAK GROVE AND SELECT... THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 75 AND 77. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 41. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO... WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && LAT...LON 3753 8671 3732 8661 3725 8682 3741 8694 TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 250DEG 4KT 3734 8683 RS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012
KYC227-022025-
WARREN KY-
255 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...
AT 252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT VICTOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
THREE SPRINGS...
PLUM SPRINGS...
MOUNT VICTOR...
MEMPHIS JUNCTION...
DELAFIELD...
HARDCASTLE AND ALVATON...
GOTTS...
GREENHILL...
MOTLEY...
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
20 AND 30.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND
7.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
LAT...LON 3685 8659 3705 8648 3710 8636 3693 8625
3686 8628 3685 8630
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 283DEG 8KT 3696 8636
AMSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
358 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0915 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE WILLISBURG 37.78N 85.09W
07/01/2012 WASHINGTON KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
TREES DOWNED NEAR HWY 152 AND HWY 43
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1200706
ZTLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were downed near the small town of Cromwell, which is 6 miles southeast of Beaver Dam.
One inch hail fell at the where Highway 31W crosses the Barren River.
A spotter reported a tree down along State Highway 31W near the Interstate 65 exchange. Eight minutes later, another tree fell 1 mile south near the intersection of Campbell Lane and Smallhouse Road.
A spotter reported quarter sized hail near Alvaton.
A spotter reported that a tree fell across Blue Level Road.
The public reported an ongoing water rescue from a stalled vehicle at the intersection of 31-W and Fairview Avenue. The ASOS site at the Bowling Green Airport, located not quite under the axis of heaviest rainfall, received 1.7 inches of rain in less than 2 hours.
The public reported that thunderstorm winds damaged the roof of a K-mart on Scottsville Road.
The Bowling Green broadcast media reported that a fallen tree had blocked part of Cave Mill Road.
Local law enforcement reported that several trees were downed in Scottsville.
Local law enforcement reported that several trees were downed along State Highway 70 near Rochester.
Local law enforcement reported that several trees were downed near State Highway 163.
Local Law enforcement reported that 1 inch hail fell just west of Vernon.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 381295, 381291, 381297, 381292, 381299, 381289, 381300, 381302, 381303, 381304, 381305, 381294.