An isolated severe thunderstorm occurred in the unstable air mass across the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm occurred in the unstable air mass across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 15, 8:01 PM CST, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 901 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THIS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION IS ISSUED TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE EXPIRATION OF THE EARLIER LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 7 PM CDT...AND THE RECENT CANCELLATION OF THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180 FOR CARTER...RIPLEY...WAYNE AND BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. GOES IMAGERY DERIVED LIFTED INDEX VALUES HAVE BEEN SHOWING A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN PLUME WILL BE FIXED WITH THE VICINITY OF CURRENT CONVECTION. THE PREFERRED 3KM HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE- BASED PEAK HELICITIES /ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE 4KM NAM-WRF...12KM NAM AND 40KM GFS GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY/ AND CAPE WOULD DIMINISH AFTER MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN THE 23Z SUNDAY - 03Z MONDAY /6-9 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT/. WITH THAT IN MIND...ATTEMPTED TO BLEND THE HRRR GUIDANCE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WFO PAH CWA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...UTILIZED DIFFERENTIAL POP/WEATHER FOR THUNDERSTORMS VS. RAINSHOWERS AS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY MAKE ANOTHER INTERIM UPDATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TO ADDRESS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN AND AROUND THE CONVECTIVE RAIN SHIELD. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THE SHOWERS... THUNDERSTORMS...AND OTHER WEATHER PHENOMENA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BISECTING THE STATE OF MISSOURI FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES. WITH ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50+ KTS...EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSIFY INTO A QLCS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR DECREASE A BIT. AS RESULT... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA BY 3-4 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF A PARTICULAR SYSTEM...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THEN OUT OF THE WEST STARTING MONDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 BY MID WEEK...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN IN THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT ON TIMING THIS SYSTEM. MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE FAVORED A DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION...WHILE RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT SHIFTS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES TEND TO FAVOR THIS APPROACH. AS A RESULT...CURRENT FORECAST INCLUDES INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST...PEAKING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DEPARTING SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TAKES HOLD. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS. BOTH THE 15/12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES WERE MADE WITH THE 00Z MONDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO...WITH THE ANTICIPATED OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ADJUSTED VISIBILITIES IN THE THUNDERSTORMS UPWARD...BUT PROLONGED THE RAIN SHIELD BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORM A LITTLE LONGER. BETWEEN 08Z-13Z MONDAY...GRADUALLY RETURNED EACH OF THE TAF SITES BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && UPDATE...SMITH SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM....RP AVIATION...SMITH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1041 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-162015- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1041 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED MAINLY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE QUAD STATE REGION. NOLES
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 58 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:47 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree limbs were blown down and a tree was blown on a garage in Fairfield.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, April 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 374235.