Wildfire in Hawaii, November 26 to 27, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON NOV 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
STATE. LAND AND SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO SOME ISLAND LOCATIONS
IS PROBABLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND. HARD TO TELL WHERE IT IS...OR IF IT
STILL EXISTS...BECAUSE OF ALL OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE LOW
CLOUDS. AT ANY RATE...THERE IS NOT MUCH LEFT OF IT...AND WHAT IS
LEFT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT BLANKETED THE ISLANDS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THEY ARE THINNING OUT AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST. EXPECT THEM TO BE ENTIRELY EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER HIGH
TERRAIN. THE DRY AIR IS FILLING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DYING
FRONT.

THE PLEASANT WEATHER...WHICH COMES COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST...WILL PROBABLY LAST INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THE
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS LATE TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY...PUSHED THERE BY A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SPREADING VOLCANIC HAZE
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A
RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME
LAND BREEZES TO SET UP. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY FALL OVER LAND
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THE HAZE SHOULD SPREAD PRETTY MUCH
OVER THE ENTIRE STATE.

AS OF NOW...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL STAY OVER THE STATE INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE PROBABLY STALLING WEST OF
KAUAI ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWERS OVER KAUAI
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS UP FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF A NORTH SWELL ALONG WITH BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING SHORES STARTING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR MOST HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO
THE FRESH NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND INCREASINGLY HIGHER SEAS. THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...AND THE HIGH SEAS WILL
LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY STARTING AT 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST-FACING
SHORES.

&&

CRAIG