Wildfire in Hawaii, June 7 to 8, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST THU JUN 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FOCUSED ON WINDWARD
TERRAIN. WINDS MAY EASE A NOTCH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST REASONING
DURING TODAYS SHIFT. A FAIRLY TRANQUIL TRADE WIND SHOWER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER UPSTREAM IS ON THE DRY SIDE SO ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AT TIMES. DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SUBTLE.

NEXT WEEK GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SIGNAL A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SUGGESTS WINDS VEERING AND EASING
FURTHER LOCALLY TOWARDS MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE DEPICTS
BETTER AGREEMENT ON MID LEVEL COOLING AND CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE FORMING JUST EAST OF HAWAII.
THIS COULD SUPPORT CHANCES FOR INCREASED WINDWARD RAINFALL AND
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO BEGIN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 AM HST THURSDAY MORNING/
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN SPEED POSSIBLE. A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1100
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS DRIVING THE TRADES. A SLOW-MOVING
NORTH PACIFIC FRONT DRAPED OVER MIDWAY ATOLL WILL PUSH THE HIGH
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
ISLANDS LOOKS TO HOLD. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WINDS...BUT A SLIGHT DECREASE IS POSSIBLE.

A STABLE PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN AN INVERSION AROUND 5000 FEET...KEEPING
MODEST SHOWERS LARGELY CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. THE TRADE WIND
FLOW 400 MILES UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS CONTAINS SOME SHOWER-BEARING
CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL AFFECT WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP AND STABLE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE. EXPECT A DRIER SHOWER PATTERN WITH
MINIMAL SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES IN.

BOUTS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LINGER SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE...SENDING HIGH CLOUDS OVER WATERS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND OCCASIONALLY OVER THE STATE.

HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK...WINDS MAY DROP A NOTCH AS CONTINUED
TROUGHING NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEAKENS THE NEARBY SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE EAST. AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS MAY RESULT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AS WELL AS SHORT LIVED FOR ANY
WINDWARD/MT SECTIONS. SHALLOW BKN-OVC CIGS EXPECTED BTN 045-050 AFT
08Z ALTHOUGH -SHRA WILL REMAIN ISOL.

&&

.MARINE...
LAST EVENING/S ASCAT PASS VERIFIED 25 KT WINDS OVER THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY EASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
CANCELLATION OF THE SCA.

SSW SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES AROUND
CHEST-SHOULDER HIGH. SELECT AREAS COULD PULL IN SOME HEAD HIGH SETS
ON THE RIGHT TIDE. SIMILAR SIZED SURF WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A GRADUAL DECLINE BEGINS. SW SWELL SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER SIZE RANGE NEXT WEEK.

THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER TC MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
SOME NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAD
HIGH PLUS SURF ALONG EXPOSED LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC/AVIATION...DEJESUS
MARINE...DEJESUS/WROE
PREVIOUS...WROE