Tornadoes and Hail in Colorado, June 7 to 8, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
323 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH CUMULUS BUBBLING UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THIS
AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOP IS A LONG AN UPPER LEVEL TOUGH
AXIS...TRAILING FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.  WINDS HAVE STARTED TO RESPOND TO PRESSURE FALLS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35 MPH ON THE
PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO WARM NOW THAT THE CLOUDS HAVE
ERODED WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS.  THE LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS.
SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING AND ARE RUNNING
AROUND 35 KTS.

ALL THAT SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE AND WHEN ANY SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.  CURRENTLY THINKING TWO AREAS ARE FAVORED...OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.  GIVEN THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF EL PASO COUNTY TO THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...FEEL THIS AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MODERATE SHEAR VALUES AND HIGH INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  ALSO OVER THE COLORADO SPRINGS METRO
AREA...WE WILL SEE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS.  WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...WITH PARTICULAR CONCERN WITH THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA.  EXPECT SLIGHTLY FASTER STORM MOTIONS WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INCREASED SHEAR.  ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF WE HAVE ANY STORM INTERACTIONS OR BOUNDARIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE MORE
ISOLATED...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING
EAST INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  OUTFLOW WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH MOSTLY 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER THEN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AS 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
15-17C ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.  MOZLEY/CIOFFI

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY...

,SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...DRY
LINE MOVES EAST OF THE KANSAS BORDER. DRY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY MIDDAY. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING WILL DEVELOP OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH MOST AREAS NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA BEING ABOVE 11000
FEET. HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...ONLY THE
FUELS IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222 AND 225 ARE CRITICAL. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ONLY ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE THREE
ZONES. IF ADDITIONAL AREAS DEVELOP CRITICAL FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE REGIONS. WITH AIR ALOFT BEING
VERY DRY...ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS FOR THE REGION ON SATURDAY
INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS.

.SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
DRY WITH DEW POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S. ATMOSPHERE
ON THE PLAINS LOOKS TO BE CAPPED ON SUNDAY...AND ONLY HAVE SILENT
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY. AIR ALOFT WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE
HUMIDITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH. IF FUELS BECOME CRITICAL IN ZONES 220...223 OR
224...MAY HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

.MONDAY...ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY OVER THE REGION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...BUT KEPT THE ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS PRODUCED BY THE
CR EXTENDED ROUTINE.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND MID WEST...PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
PLAINS WILL BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. STILL
UNCERTAIN AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
STRONG STORMS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR KCOS AND KPUB. CUMULUS
HAVE STARTED TO BUILD OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF KCOS AND WILL
DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL TO AT LEAST 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR
35-40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
23-02Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT KPUB.  THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF KPUB THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT NEAR THE
TERMINAL.  WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS CREATING
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-225.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ084-085.

&&

88/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2012

COZ058>089-093>099-081745-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1137 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS EL PASO COUNTY. WHERE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...HAIL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OF CONCERN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE COLORADO SPRINGS
METRO AREA WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLS TO VERY LOW LEVELS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG...PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

88/06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 PM MDT THU JUN 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             5 SSE BLENDE            38.17N 104.52W
06/07/2012  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PJC