High Surf in Hawaii, June 19 to 21, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
712 AM HST TUE JUN 19 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WINDWARD...AND FOR SOME OTHER FINE TUNING OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGERY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MODERATE TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES TODAY...AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS
JUST A BIT. LOOK FOR A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE MODERATE TRADES WILL CARRY
SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE UPPER SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA AND THE BIG ISLAND STILL SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT MORE
TODAY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TRADES.

THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF TRADE WIND
WEATHER. LIHUE HAD AN INVERSION NEAR 6500 FT...WHILE HILO/S
INVERSION IS NEAR 9000 FT. LIHUE/S PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS A LITTLE
OVER AN INCH...AND HILO REPORTED 1.20 INCHES. THIS PLACES PW VALUES
IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR JUNE. THE MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES...THAT CORRESPONDS
NICELY WITH THE SOUNDINGS.

RADAR HAS SHOWN MORE ACTIVITY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. OVERNIGHT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY...BUT EXPECT THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS
TO BE SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH REGARDS TO
THE WINDS. HEADING INTO THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
BIT MORE...SO LOOK FOR ANOTHER TREND DOWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKS
AROUND...SO EXPECT THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THERE/S A
GREATER CHANCE OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD AREAS TODAY AND
TOMORROW...THEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS TODAY.
WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT TODAY...THE SCA MAY BE
SCALED BACK LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT TO THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AND
CHANNELS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

ROUGH TRADE WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO
EAST FACING SHORES...WITH SURF EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. A PAIR OF SOUTH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE OVERHEAD
SURF AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MODERATE TRADES. WINDWARD TERMINALS WILL
OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A HIGHER INVERSION. MODERATE AND LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR ALL WATERS AND
CHANNELS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

UPDATE...BIRCHARD