Drought in Hawaii, April 1 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
820 PM HST SAT MAR 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
GIVE WAY TO GENTLER TRADES STARTING TONIGHT. ALSO...A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS ABOUT MID WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO KEEP THE ISLAND SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. STRONGER TRADES ARE SET TO
RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM THE PESSIMISTIC
OUTLOOK FOR HEAVY RAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
FIRST OF ALL...THE ISLANDS WILL UNDER GO THROUGH A COLLAPSE OF THE
STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO SET IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRADES WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL DAY TIME SEA BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. WE BELIEVE THE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN STRONG TO LIMIT OR PREVENT THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM
OCCURRING.

THE WEATHER BECOMES A BIT CHALLENGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE TRADE WINDS TURN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND A BIT OF
INSTABILITY SETS IN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH USHERS IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVORS SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FOR BOTH KAUAI AND OAHU. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS
SLATED TO EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF KAUAI
THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THERE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS RECOVERS SOME OF THE STABILITY BY FRIDAY
INCLUDING THE RETURN OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES. BUT
CLOUDS FROM STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WEST OF KAUAI WILL KEEP
THE ISLAND SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE KAILUA BUOY SHOWS THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL HAVING HAD ITS PEAK
A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO AND SHOULD BE DECREASING SLOWLY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COMBINED SEAS IS ABOUT 11 FEET THE LAST HOUR.

THE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE STEP DOWN TO THE AREAS OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR AN ADDITIONAL 6 HOURS FOR THE
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE 6 AM SUNDAY DEADLINE TO 12
NOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF ALL
ISLANDS WILL BE LOWERED WITH THE 1000 UTC PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...
THE PREVAILING FLYING CONDITION WILL BE VFR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CEILING WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH
THE TRADES. DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS IF ANY
WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM HST SUNDAY FOR THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

LAU