Dry high pressure was in control over the Ohio Valley with ridging into the Carolinas and Georgia. The high began to shift off the Eastern Seaboard as a surface low formed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, allowing moisture to move back into the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FFC wrote it up.
Dry high pressure was in control over the Ohio Valley with ridging into the Carolinas and Georgia. The high began to shift off the Eastern Seaboard as a surface low formed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, allowing moisture to move back into the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 16, 1:50 PM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 250 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS SLIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN AS THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE OVERNIGHT. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE OVERALL MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY SPREADS MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE TIMING HAS THE BEST SHEAR ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AND A RAIN- COOLED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MAKE IT HARDEST TO GENERATE A LARGE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THE SURFACE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA CLOSELY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER IS LIKELY TO HAVE MIXED OUT. 20 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEW GUIDANCE IS WANTING TO SLOW THE EXITING SYSTEM DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ON THIS ON THE SURFACE FIELDS THOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST NOW ON THE GFS /GFS WAS THE FASTER OF THE BUNCH BUT IS NOW ON THE SLOW SIDE/. ECMWF HAS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE BUT OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF GOING BELOW GUIDANCE MIDWEEK AS WELL. STILL SOME VERY BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH SLOWER AND STRONGER. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. TDP PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012/ MOST OF THE WET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ENDING BY OR DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SIMILAR WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE TN VALLEY TO FAR NW GA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL-SE PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THE GFS BUT REMAINS STRONGER ON THE EUROPEAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE MUCH NEEDED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER N GA. GFS MUCAPES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT RUNNING 600 TO NEAR 2000 AND MUCH LESS FOR SB AND ML CAPES. MUCAPES DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT TO 1200 OR LESS. NAM MUCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN THE GFS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOR SOME CONCERN FOR ROTATING STORMS OVER N GA MONDAY NIGHT AND PORTIONS OF N AND CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY. SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER EAST CENTRAL GA FOR TUESDAY. MOST PRECIP ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA HOLDING ONTO SOME PRECIP FOR THE SE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO LACK MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. HOWEVER THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE EUROPEAN. THE GFS PRETTY MUCH MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN MOVES THE FRONT TO THE TN VALLEY. THE EUROPEAN HAS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE MID U.S. SUNDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN THE DRIER GFS. BDL && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...GENERALLY 2.5-3.5 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT ARE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE A WIDESPREAD FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...IN ANY AREA THAT SEES ANY SHORT TIME FRAME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OR PERSISTENT REGENERATION AND TRAINING RAINFALL. 20 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH 06Z SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BY 12Z. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS A BIT VARIABLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A GENERALLY WESTERLY DIRECTION PREVAILING THROUGH AROUND 00-04Z BEFORE EASTERLY WINDS RETURN THROUGH 18Z. WIND SPEEDS START OUT 4-8KT... DIMINISHING TO 6KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 6-10KT RANGE AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BETWEEN 23Z AND 08Z WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 67 80 68 78 / 30 70 90 80 ATLANTA 68 79 68 77 / 30 80 90 70 BLAIRSVILLE 63 74 65 75 / 50 80 100 70 CARTERSVILLE 65 79 67 77 / 50 90 100 70 COLUMBUS 69 83 70 80 / 30 70 90 80 GAINESVILLE 67 78 67 77 / 40 80 100 70 MACON 68 86 69 81 / 20 70 90 80 ROME 65 80 67 77 / 60 90 100 60 PEACHTREE CITY 67 80 68 78 / 30 80 90 70 VIDALIA 69 87 71 83 / 20 50 70 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....TDP AVIATION...20
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 540 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-171000- BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA- CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA- CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL- FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE- GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON- JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON- MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY- MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH- PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON- SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS- TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN- WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES- WILKINSON- 540 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA. .PRIMARY HAZARDS... THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. .DISCUSSION... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 OR LESS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... ABUNDANT MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR NORTH GEORGIA...WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3.5 INCHES EXPECTED. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The National Forest Service reported that a human-caused wildfire labeled Cashes Valley burned 0.1 acres and resulted in $200 in damages.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, September 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 428209.