A cluster of slow moving thunderstorms produced heavy rain across portions of Lee county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
A cluster of slow moving thunderstorms produced heavy rain across portions of Lee county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 2:40 PM EST, 6 hours 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 340 PM EDT Wed May 16 2012 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern has continued over the last 24 hours with a strong subtropical jet over the northern and central Gulf of Mexico and a mid-upper level low centered roughly over southern Mississippi early this afternoon. The upper level low was apparent on water vapor loops with a 60-70 knot jet streak extending from south of the Mississippi River Delta into our forecast area. Morning thunderstorm activity around Apalachee Bay, and continuing storms along a quasi-stationary front southwest into the open Gulf have kept higher cloud debris pushing across the southeastern half of our local forecast area. At the surface, there was a lack of a well defined front or boundary, with a pressure trough noted from the Piedmont of North Carolina southwestward towards Panama City and then points offshore. Surface wind convergence was increasing roughly along this axis early in the afternoon, aided in part by outflow from earlier storms. && .NEAR TERM [This Afternoon and Tonight]... Convective development for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours remains somewhat questionable. Numerical models did not handle the morning convection very well (even the runs that initialized at 12z this morning). Where there is more direct sunlight (western half of the area), the low-level moisture is more shallow and surface dewpoints are likely to mix out as low as the upper 50s. This would substantially reduce potential instability. Meanwhile, deeper moisture exists in the boundary layer closer to the Gulf and at points further east, however the mid and upper level cloud debris has prevented air mass recovery and heating. Therefore, it seems possible that we could see more suppressed convection than we have in the previous several days. If storms develop, there is the potential for some severe weather. The 12z TAE sounding showed fairly steep lapse rates in the 0 to -20C layer, and was a 27% match to significant hail analog soundings (per the SPC website). The strong upper level jet streak pushing into the area was increasing effective bulk shear to around 30 knots or so. Any storms that develop would probably diminish quickly in the evening. We may see some northeast propagation of thunderstorms that develop along the front over the Gulf overnight similar to what we saw early this morning. Therefore, PoPs were gradually shifted south by the 06-12z timeframe. There may also be some patchy fog, but with uncertainties about cloud debris, none was included in the forecast yet. .SHORT TERM (Thursday through Friday Night)...Very little changes were made from the previous forecast package for the next couple of days, as we still expect to maintain a general West to East PoP gradient, with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms to the East during the afternoon and early evening hours. This convection will continue to be generated by the weakening Upper Level Low which is sliding slowly eastward along the northern Gulf Coast, while it is slowly sheared apart over time. Rain chances are expected to range from 20 to 50 percent on Thursday, and 20 to 40 percent on Friday. Max Temps are expected to remain near climo values through the period, with low temps running a bit above. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)... Guidance is coming into better agreement in the extended period. Thus confidence is increasing in a slightly wetter solution. Broad troughing in the upper levels across the southeastern part of the country will cutoff and form a closed upper low centered over north Florida. At the surface, high pressure will nose down the eastern U.S. coastline resulting in moist easterly flow locally. The PoP forecast is rather tricky as it greatly depends on the position of the upper low. Should the low drift east, the local area would be much drier than if it remained centered overhead or shifted westward. For now, it appears as though the upper low will allow for a sharp east to west PoP gradient with drier conditions to the west. By the weekend, the upper low begins to slowly absorb into the mean flow and pull northeast. This will allow for a drying trend heading into next week. Temperatures will remain near average through the extended period. && .MARINE...Outside of any convective wind gusts, winds and seas will remain generally light through Friday as the Surface Pressure Gradient remains weak. By Friday Night and Saturday, however, this gradient is expected to tighten sufficiently to produce cautionary or near cautionary conditions in an easterly flow regime, as stronger Surface Ridging builds in to our north, and an area of lower pressure develops well off to our south. && .AVIATION (THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)... VFR conditions will remain throughout the afternoon despite a few isolated showers expected to the southern and eastern terminals effecting TLH, ABY, and VLD. With calm winds overnight, fog is the next main concern reducing conditions to MVFR at TLH, ECP, and VLD around 08Z. VFR conditions will return by 13Z at all locations. && .FIRE WEATHER...Due to high relative humidities, red flag criteria will not be met for any portion of our CWA over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 88 63 85 64 / 30 40 20 20 20 Panama City 67 87 67 86 68 / 20 20 10 20 20 Dothan 63 89 64 86 64 / 20 20 10 20 10 Albany 63 88 64 86 63 / 30 30 20 20 20 Valdosta 64 88 63 85 63 / 30 50 30 40 30 Cross City 64 87 63 87 63 / 30 50 30 40 30 Apalachicola 66 83 66 84 68 / 30 30 10 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && Synopsis/Near Term/Fire Wx...Lamers Aviation...Schaer Long Term...Harrigan/Vickery Rest of Discussion...Gould
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 925 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-180130- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF- INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 925 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 /825 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WATER INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABATING BY MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH GEORGIA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN FAVORING EASTERN AREAS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. IN FACT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... GENERAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOWEVER... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. LANIER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 639 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 FLZ012-112-162330- INLAND BAY FL-COASTAL BAY FL- 539 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BAY COUNTY... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT AT 536 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF LYNN HAVEN...OR NEAR VICKSBURG... MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT. LAT...LON 3044 8560 3028 8561 3030 8584 3044 8584 TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 094DEG 4KT 3038 8569 25-CAMP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 637 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012 GAZ143-170000- MILLER GA- 737 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MILLER COUNTY... * UNTIL 800 PM EDT AT 736 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF COLQUITT...OR NEAR BOYKIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT. LAT...LON 3116 8461 3108 8463 3108 8485 3117 8483 TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 297DEG 3KT 3110 8476 25-CAMP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1009 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 GAZ126-170245- LEE GA- 1009 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LEE COUNTY... * UNTIL 1045 PM EDT AT 1006 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEESBURG...OR NEAR STARKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. ALSO...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT. LAT...LON 3189 8398 3163 8407 3165 8427 3191 8419 TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 297DEG 4KT 3177 8414 25-CAMP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1030 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 GAZ156-157-170300- GRADY GA-DECATUR GA- 1030 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DECATUR AND GRADY COUNTIES... * UNTIL 1100 PM EDT AT 1030 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF BAINBRIDGE...OR NEAR CLIMAX...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR... WHIGHAM BY 1050 PM EDT. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LAT...LON 3107 8429 3083 8422 3084 8454 3097 8456 TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 261DEG 20KT 3092 8446 18-WOOL
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
The USGS gauge along the Flint River at Highway 32 at the Lee/Worth County line measured 3.11 inches of rain in 3 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, May 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 372495.