Drought in Florida, March 1 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FROM SEA
BREEZE COLLISION EARLIER IN THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG
DEVELOPMENT WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE A COUPLE LOCATIONS COULD SEE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE. SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012/

AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. A
FEW CLOUD CLUSTERS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND MAY RESULT IN
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING CLOSE TO MOST OF THE ERN TERMINALS
TONIGHT SO WILL MENTION VCSH IN MOST OF THE TAFS. SFC WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SE (140-160) DECREASING TO ABOUT 4-6 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 10 AM
THURSDAY. OVER KAPF...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. FOG COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL AFTER 10Z, BUT VIS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 4 NM. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY REACH
THE TERMINAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012/

.AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...

DISCUSSION...AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL OVER THE COMING DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE
AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS BEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY.

THROUGH FRIDAY LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND IN INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

WITH THIS EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND STILL PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CHANCES OF FOG FORMATION WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE PARTICULARLY IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE NIGHTS. ANY CLOUD COVER
REFLECTED ON THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED IN GOOD
PART WITH FOG/STRATUS CLOUDS.

THIS ALSO MEANS WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS SOME RESULTING IN LESS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE FEBRUARY/EARLY
MARCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LOOKING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF)
ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
S FL SOMETIME SUNDAY. THERE STILL EXISTS SOME SCALE OF UNCERTAINTY
TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
CYCLES HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS
BOTH SHOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. VIRTUALLY
ALL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH VERY
LIMITED NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN SMALL AND MAINLY CONFINED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MINT MONDAY MORNING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND ALSO AFTER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE E CST BY
TUESDAY AND BREEZY ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
RAPIDLY INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 20
KNOTS OR GREATER GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7
FEET OR HIGHER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LIKE THAT WELL
INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST, LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS POINT TOWARD AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THIS
SCENARIO MATERIALIZING SO MARINERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS OVER
THE COMING DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  69  83 / 20 -  -  -
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  83 / 20 -  -  -
MIAMI            71  84  72  84 / 20 -  -  -
NAPLES           67  85  67  86 / -  -  -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-011200-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
356 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TONIGHT DUE TO A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WIND OF
10 TO 15 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE RISK INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.