Hail in Colorado, May 17, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1022 AM MDT THU MAY 17 2012

.UPDATE...CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION MOVING OVER THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA AT THE PRESENT
TIME. THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE NOTED BUT ALSO SOME MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WE EXPECT ISOLATED AND
RATHER HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH BASED
CONVECTION AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO AT LEAST 550 MB. HARD
TO RULE OUT CONVECTION EVEN IN UNFAVORED VALLEY FLOORS...BUT
EXPECT SPRINKLES AT BEST GIVEN DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. HAVE ADDED
GUSTY WINDS TO STORMS IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AND ALSO BEEFED UP
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS A BIT BASED ON LATEST OBS AND HRRR/RUC
GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL TREND FROM WESTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY AS
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP BY 18Z-20Z AND CONTINUE TIL AROUND 00Z. MAIN IMPACT WOULD
BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS TO 35 KTS IN/NEAR ANY HIGH BASED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 45 KT GUSTS
IMPACTING THE AIRPORTS. WILL MONITOR OVERALL COVERAGE AND
PROGRESSION BEFORE INCLUDING TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN TAFS. OTHERWISE
GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHERLY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM MDT THU MAY 17 2012/

SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

..VIRGA TSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CO ROCKIES ATTM. A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND ARE OCCURRING OVER THE MTNS.
LEE TROUGH NOTED OVER THE PLAINS AND WINDS WERE KEEPING UP FROM KLHX
EASTWARD. THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPS UP...AND READINGS WERE IN THE 60S
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 AT KLHX AND KLAA.

A SECOND MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WAS OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST.

TODAY...

WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE HI BASED CONVECTION FIRE
UP PRETTY EARLY OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. IT IS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER
LVLS...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO ~50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY SYNOPTIC
WEST WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ADD TO THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT...BUT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE INSOLATION A BIT. BASED ON
THIS...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE 85-90F RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.

ISOLD SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE MTNS TODAY...BUT EXPECT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ALOFT WARM UP OVER THE MTNS.

TONIGHT...

AS TROUGH NUMBER 1 MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.. A MUCH MORE BROADER
TROUGH WILL BE HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. BY 12Z
FRI...THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER E NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY KEEP LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MILD AND A STEADY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD
OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER MANY AREAS. IT WILL BE
DRY OVER ALL AREAS TONIGHT. \/34

LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GREAT BASIN
ON FRIDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE 4 CORNERS. DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS AND AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...POINTS TO ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE VIA THE FUELS PAGE INDICATES THAT FUELS ARE NOT READY TO
CARRY FIRE IN THE CWA...THEREFORE NO FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME. STAY TUNED BECAUSE THIS MIGHT CHANGE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF PCPN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. VERY WARM AS MAX TEMPS PUSH INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR THE E PLAINS...AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST...SFC
HI PRESSURE AND A BLAST OF COOLER AIR DROPS DOWN INTO THE E HALF OF
THE STATE ON SAT...AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST...WITH ABOUT 15 DEGREES OF COOLING FOR MAX
TEMPS BOTH DAYS AND GENERALLY MORE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME PCPN
CHANCES STILL LOOK THE BEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPORARY RIDGING FOR THE REGION BOTH MON
AND TUE...WITH ANOTHER LARGER UPPER TROUGH THEN APPROACHING DROM THE
PAC NW. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN BRUNT OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
STAY MAINLY NORTH OF COLORADO ACROSS THE N ROCKIES. THEREFORE...DRY
AND HOT CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON WED. 27

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND
KCOS DURING THE NEXT 24H. WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT AT ALL 3 SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM HI BASED CONVECTION TODAY...BUT PROBABILITY IS RATHER LOW AND
DO NOT PLAN TO MENTION IT EXPLICITLY IN TAFS ATTM. WILL ALLOW LATER
SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1045 AM MDT THU MAY 17 2012

COZ058>089-093>099-181645-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1045 AM MDT THU MAY 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS PRODUCING
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING.

ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...ALONG WITH
HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.