Heavy rain produced flash flooding in the High Park burn area in Larimer County. Mud and debris was reported over the eastbound lane of Colorado Highway 14, about 2 miles east of Mishowaka.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BOU wrote it up.
Heavy rain produced flash flooding in the High Park burn area in Larimer County. Mud and debris was reported over the eastbound lane of Colorado Highway 14, about 2 miles east of Mishowaka.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Denver/Boulder, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 11:49 AM MST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1249 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2012 .HYDROLOGY...STRONGEST STORMS HAVE HAD AN UNCANNY KNACK OF DEVELOPING IN/NEAR THE BURN SCARS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLOW AND NEW UPDRAFTS SEEM TO BE FIRING ON THE FRINGE OF THE STORMS COLD POOL ON THE SOUTH SIDE. AS A RESULT...OVERALL STORM MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER SO THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE BURN SCARS IS NOW MODERATE WHILE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS STILL LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM MDT FRI JUL 27 2012/ UPDATE...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF COLORADO THIS MORNING. INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM GPS INDICATES READINGS WERE ABOUT 0.25 INCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ON THE WEST SLOPE. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TODAY SO CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH INCREASED STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW A LITTLE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE ON THE PLAINS AS WELL. ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED SO THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE LATEST FORECAST. && .AVIATION...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT ALONG WITH DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT PUSH OFF THE FOOTHILLS. WILL GO FOR A PREVAILING STRONGER WESTERLY OUTFLOW WIND STARTING 20Z-21Z WHICH IS CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY IN THESE SITUATIONS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 20Z-03Z WITH BEST CHANCE 21Z-01Z. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM MDT FRI JUL 27 2012/ SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE. MOISTURE TO INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER JUST BELOW AN INCH. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LONG TERM...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WEAKENS SOME AND SHIFTS WESTWARD ON SATURDAY...THEN BACKS UP OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS ALLOWS A MODEST STREAM OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD OVER COLORADO ON SUNDAY. 850-500MB PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MEAN LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WHEN IT COME TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS FOR OUR PART OF THE STATE. BEFORE THIS INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THE PLAINS RAIN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS PROMISING ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF CONVECTION/QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A BNDRY LAYER SHEAR AXIS/ CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST DOUGLAS COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT ANY QPF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SOMEWHERE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH RANGE...ASSUMING STORM UPDRAFTS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE STG MID-LEVEL CAP OVER THE AREA. ITS SUNDAY WHEN STORM CHANGES SHOULD INCREASE EVERYWHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS RISING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. BY AFTERNOON UPSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO SUBSIDE BUT BY THEN MEAN LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.85 AND 1.1 INCH. THIS LATEST PUSH OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE 850-500MB MEAN LAYER FLOW MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY...CHANCES ARE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER AND RAINFALL RATES NOT AS GREAT THIS TIME AROUND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...PARK COUNTY AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES A WESTWARD RUN AGAIN ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH PLACES COLORADO UNDER A DRIER...SLIGHTLY WARMER WESTERLY FLOW. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE DOWN TURN WITH VALUES BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE 0.65 TO 0.85 INCH RANGE ON THE PLAINS AND LOWER THAN THAT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ALSO APPEARS TO BE QUITE CAPPED WITH WARMING ALOFT WITH THE PASSING RIDGE. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND TO GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE T-STORMS IN THE MTNS AND ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS. THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN ON MONDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MIGRATION ACCORDING TO THE GFS WITH IT CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THERE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF DON/T TAKE THE RIDGE AS FAR WEST BUT IT STILL KEEPS IT OVER NEW MEXICO WHICH ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF COLORADO FROM ANY SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. SO EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTY T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE WARMEST READINGS THIS WEEKEND EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN STORMS ON SUNDAY. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM....BAKER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1016 AM MDT FRI JUL 27 2012 COZ030>051-281630- JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET- WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET- GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET- SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/ NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET- SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/ GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET- JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY- LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY- BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY- NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY- ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET- NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES- NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN COUNTY- SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY- LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY- 1016 AM MDT FRI JUL 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. THE STORMS WILL DECREASE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MONDAY DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST. THIS DRYING TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. BARJENBRUCH/D-L
The Cheyenne radar (KCYS), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:51 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain produce flash flooding in the High Park burn area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 402469.