The Likely wildfire was started by human activities on 09/05/12. It was contained by 09/15/12.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Likely wildfire was started by human activities on 09/05/12. It was contained by 09/15/12.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 5, 7:43 AM PST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
843 AM PDT WED SEP 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AHEAD OF THE LOW THERE ARE HINTS AT
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF SACRAMENTO AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. WE'LL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TO SEE
WHAT IF ANY IMPACT IT WILL HAVE IN OUR AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO MODOC
AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER BY
THAT TIME WE WILL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LI'S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. MORE LIKELY WE'LL HAVE SOME CUMULUS
BUILD UPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS EVENING IN MODOC COUNTY SHOWS THE MID LEVELS MOISTENING UP
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
MOST LIKELY BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CIGS LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BIT THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE MARINE STRATUS TO
RETREAT JUST WEST OF KOTH WITH TEMPORARY VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20-23Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT AREAS OF SMOKE
NEAR THE KLAMATH BASIN COULD CAUSE OCCASIONAL REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM PDT WED SEP 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM THE CENTRAL CAL VALLEYS NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR WEST SIDE
SECTIONS OF OREGON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR AREAS
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO
THE WEST OF THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE COAST AND ADJACENT
AREAS COOL EVEN AS STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BACKS OFF SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS MODOC COUNTY, OTHERWISE,
WE HAVE NO HEADLINES OVER LAND TODAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
BUT THE TROUGH WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS WELL. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT
ADVERTISING ANY OBVIOUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT WE WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY SEE AN INCREASING TENDENCY FOR CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE'LL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SINCE, GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, IT
WOULDN'T TAKE TOO MUCH OF A KICK TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF OUR
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT BY SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE
BC COAST WILL PICK UP THE TROUGH AND TAKE IT INLAND. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE,
AND WITH PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE, I WOULDN'T EXPECT ANY. WHAT THIS
WILL DO, HOWEVER, IS COOL THINGS DOWN STARTING SUNDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ084-085.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ376.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Likely wildfire was started by human activities on 09/05/12. It was contained by 09/14/12. By that time it burned 9838 acres and $4.2 million was spent on wildfire fighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in California, September 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 400990.