Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, September 5 to 6, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY AND PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS KANSAS FROM A COMPLEX
WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS HAVE
BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY PUSH INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THE FRINGE OF
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY
PUSHED INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND HAS DEVELOPED SOME NEW CONVECTION IN WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE AREA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK
VERY IMPRESSIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODELS INDICATING 20KTS
OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TO RESIDE IN THE EASTERN CWA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS IN THE WESTERN CWA BUT SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 IN THE EAST AS WELL TODAY. DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO WORK DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 100 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE AT THE PEAK. FOR THIS REASON
WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL MENTION IN HWO. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TODAYS RECORD TEMPERATURES.

HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH FRONT RESIDING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WARMEST AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL CHANCES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSH THROUGH. FAIRLY STRONG COOLER AND
DRIER AIR PUSH WITH THE INCOMING AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BE IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012/

FOR THE 05/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...AN AREA OF WEAKENING
SHRA/TSRA OVER EASTERN KS MAY AFFECT KJLN EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KS AND
SW MO LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AFTER 06/0000Z. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...BUT THE FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME WDLY SCT
HIGH BASED TSTMS AND WILL PUT PROB30 GROUPS TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

DSA

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AERA TODAY. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

STATION      RECORD HIGH      RECORD WARMEST
                              LOW TEMPERATURE
SPRINGFIELD   99 IN 1988        76 IN 1998

JOPLIN       103 IN 1998        77 IN 1985

WEST PLAINS  101 IN 1990        72 IN 1999

VICHY        104 IN 1899        78 IN 1899

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
723 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
  MISSOURI. A STRONG STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE AND CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
  FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
  DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THURSDAY
  NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING
  THIS TIME PERIOD APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN