High Wind in California, November 8, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
515 PM PST THU NOV 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SOME PRETTY GOOD RETURNS ON RADAR FROM NEAR BARSTOW
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CLARK THIS EVENING. HORSE THIEF
SPRINGS IN NORTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY REPORTED 2 ONE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING.  -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
352 PM PST THU NOV 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH JUST OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR
43N 126W AS OF 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST CONCERN IS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL STRONGLY
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS LEE OF THE SIERRA
AND SPRING MOUNTAIN RANGES. CONDITIONS AREA ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR
THE SIERRA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS LEE OF THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SO FAR TODAY THE
HIGHEST WIND GUST / 66 MPH/ WAS OBSERVED AT THE FIVE MILE RAWS
SITE...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 1.5 MILES WEST OF 395 SOUTH OF BISHOP.
ELSEWHERE GUSTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 35 AND 55 MPH...HOWEVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IDEAL TIME FOR
STRONG WINDS. HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH IMPACTS ON THE GROUND YET VIA
WEBCAMS...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF ROTOR CLOUDS...AND WE MAY START TO SEE STRONGER WINDS
SURFACE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS THE LOW SWINGS INLAND
OVERNIGHT AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS WE GET MORE UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE OVER WITH THE LOW CENTER FARTHER SOUTH...BUT
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY. HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR FRIDAY...AS IT LOOKS TO BE BORDERLINE
AND ONLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY AT BEST. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PASS ACROSS REGION FRIDAY
EVENING AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT READINGS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY.

AS FAR AS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION GOES...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
IS SHOWING WEAK RETURNS SCATTERED MAINLY ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT...HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS IS VIRGA...AND RESULTING
IN ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES
IN. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MANY AREAS
MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME FLAKES WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN AS LOW
AS 3500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SATURDAY EVENING WITH COVERAGE QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. NORTH BREEZES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUNDAY
WITH SPEEDS MOST ENHANCED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A RIDGE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL MIGRATE OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...THE GFS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS FASTER WITH ITS PROGRESSION THAN
THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SINCE IT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A WIND
PRODUCER EITHER. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES TO A MINIMUM FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18-25KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35KTS WILL BE
COMMON THOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF 20-25 KNOTS BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 6K FEET AT TIMES AND POSSIBLY
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED. LOCAL
GUSTS OVER 70 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO SEVERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE
WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF TALLER MOUNTAIN RANGES. VSBY
MAY ALSO BE REDUCED LOCALLY IN BLDU. SCT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD FROM CENTRAL NEVADA DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND
4000 FEET. AREAS OF VSBY MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS LEE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS GUSTING 55 TO 75 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SOME AREAS. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE OWENS VALLEY THROUGH THE
EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER ABOVE 20 PERCENT LATE
THIS EVENING THOUGH HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ014-015-017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ519-520.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ226. &&

KENNEDY/ADAIR

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
202 PM PST THU NOV 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DESERT ROCK AIRPORT     36.62N 116.03W
11/08/2012  M58 MPH          NYE                NV   ASOS

&&

BFUIS