High Wind in California, June 5 to 6, 2012

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
819 PM PDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COOLING TREND
WILL OCCUR FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
REESTABLISHES AND NIGHTLY CLOUDS AND FOG RETURN.

&&

.UPDATE...

A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND
SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
MONICA RANGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. NAM BUFR TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS FOR KVNY...KBUR AND KLAX INDICATE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET AND 950 MB WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS ON THE
LOCAL 4-KM WRF OVER THE SANTA MONICA RANGE. WINDS GUSTS WILL BE
INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LOCAL MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN STATION OF CONCERN WILL BE THE MALIBU HILLS AREA
AS THE WIND ACCELERATE DOWN THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE SANTA
MONICAS. A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE ISSUED LATER SHOULD MORE DATA
ARRIVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR UPGRADING.

THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AND THE WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THURSDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...DESPITE A COOLING TREND IN THE CURRENT
PACKAGE. WITH AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT DECLINING AND THE WIND
LIGHTENING...IT WOULD MAKE SENSE FOR THURSDAY TO END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
1000-500 MB THICKNESS IN THE GFS AND NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS CLIMB
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH FALLS INLINE WITH WARMING
THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL BE BRIEFED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO, THOUGH HOW MUCH BELOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION AND WILL HAVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON COASTAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NAM SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN DOING A GREAT JOB WITH
THE EASTERLY GRADIENTS. THIS MORNING IT WAS A FULL 4 MB TOO WEAK
WITH THE 12Z LAX-DAG GRADIENT AND IT'S STILL ABOUT 2 MB TOO WEAK
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RUN DID BACK OFF A TAD ON THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT'S STILL MORE THAN 3 MB. FOR JUNE
THAT IS ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED AND I'M STILL VERY SKEPTICAL THAT
WE'LL SEE THAT MUCH OFFSHORE GRADIENT. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY FOR LA/VTU COAST
AND VALLEYS, BUT ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND CURRENT FORECAST LEANS
HEAVILY THAT WAY. BUT CONFIDENCE NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THE COAST
WILL SEE THAT MUCH WARMING. ELSEWHERE, THOUGH, MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE A GOOD 10 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER TODAY, WITH WINDS DECREASING
BY LATE MORNING.

A BANNER DAY EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS ON
AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GRADIENTS DO TREND ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE
BEACHES OR PERHAPS JUST AN EARLIER SPIKE. BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE
AT LEAST AS WARM IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.

BY FRIDAY STRONG ONSHORE TRENDS WILL DEVELOP AS A TROF MOVES INTO
THE PAC NW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MARINE LYR RETURNING TO THE COAST AND
HIGHS FALLING 5-10 DEGREES FOR COAST/VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...FURTHER COOLING WITH A DEEPER MARINE LYR FOR
SATURDAY, THEN LEVELING OFF OR SLIGHT WARMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT. PRETTY TYPICAL JUNE CONDITIONS WITH
NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CLEARING TO THE BEACHES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0051Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
BLOWING DUST AT DESERT TERMINALS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AT TERMINALS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...HALL/WOFFORD
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
606 PM PDT TUE JUN 5 2012

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-061300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
606 PM PDT TUE JUN 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE ALL MANOR OF HAZARDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CREATE OCEAN HAZARDS FOR MARINERS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
THE WIND GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO 60 MPH
AND LAST OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH WILL AFFECT
THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL SEE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AS WELL. LATE THIS AFTERNOON A SURGE OF NORTH
WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE VALLEYS OF L.A. AND VENTURA
COUNTY AND WILL EVEN AFFECT THE MALIBU COAST. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL PLAGUE ALL LOCAL
BEACHES.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CREATE OCEAN HAZARDS FOR MARINERS ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS...THE VALLEYS OF
LOW ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES EXCEPT THE SAN GABRIEL...AND THE
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL