A strong upper level disturbance and associated cold front moved through the Mid-South during the evening hours of October 17, 2012. The cold front interacted with a moist and unstable airmass in place over the region and a line of showers and thunderstorms developed over Eastern Arkansas and then swept east across the Mid-South.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A strong upper level disturbance and associated cold front moved through the Mid-South during the evening hours of October 17, 2012. The cold front interacted with a moist and unstable airmass in place over the region and a line of showers and thunderstorms developed over Eastern Arkansas and then swept east across the Mid-South. Strong winds aloft aided in the development of the line of thunderstorms some of which became severe and produced damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 17, 5:01 PM CST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012/
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE FOR NOW QUITE TRANQUIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING ON STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LATEST COLD FRONT LOCATION WAS ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
TO JUST EAST OF DALLAS TEXAS WITH CONVECTION INITIATION JUST WEST
OF SPRINGFIELD. LATEST 18Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWING A STOUT CAP OF 5C
AT 810MB...JUST ABOVE THE STRATUS DECK. CHANCES ARE THAT IT WILL
BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION INITIATION. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO ALSO SEE AND COMPARE THIS SOUNDING TO A 19Z
RESEARCH SOUNDING LAUNCH IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE SKIES WERE
MOSTLY SUNNY.
FOR TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL LIKELY AS BOTH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWING
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 23-06Z...WITH A HALF TO PERHAPS ONE HALF INCHES OF
TOTAL RAINFALL. AFTER SCANNING SPC'S HHR MODEL... CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND SPARKING OFF CONVECTION ALONG CROWLEY'S RIDGE BY 6PM.
WIDSPREAD STRATUS CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS MAY
BE THE REASON FOR THE GREATER FOCUS TO SHIFT TO THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. BOTH BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY MERGE ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH STORMS REMAINS
THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT AS STORM/LINE SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 50 MPH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MID AND UPPER 60S
MAKING THERE WAY INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES. STILL FEEL THAT
THIS LOCATION...THAT IS SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-55...WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A TORNADIC STORM BEFORE 02Z...AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. BY 02Z STORMS WILL HAVE CROSSED INTO
WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...QUICKLY EVOLVING
INTO ONE LONG LINE OF INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS BOUNDARY
MERGER/TRANSITION IS IN RESPONSE TO A 80KT 500MB JET CROSSING
ARKANSAS. THUS A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST DURING THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE MIDSOUTH BY 1AM WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE CLEARER SKIES WILL EXIST BEFORE SUNRISE...50S WILL BE
SEEN ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAIN STATES. WEST SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW...SO THE NEED FOR ANOTHER
WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ACCESSED BY THE NIGHTCREW. WEAK CAA
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. NONE-THE-LESS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
NICE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A QUICK WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE GFS AND EURO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY AS
IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. HAVE ADJUSTED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN UP 12 HOURS TO REFLECT THIS NEW TIMING BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING A FRONT STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF SET. SHRAS/TSRAS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS WHICH IS WHAT LATEST HRRR MODEL WAS
SHOWING. BEST TIMING FOR KMEM WILL BE BETWEEN 01-04Z...FOR KJBR
00-03Z...FOR KMKL 02-05Z...AND FOR KTUP 03-06Z. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE SHRAS/TSRAS. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NW BRIEFLY BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE GOING BACK TO THE WSW. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-18Z. GUSTS WILL BE
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS.
KRM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 53 72 49 69 / 90 10 10 10
MKL 50 71 45 65 / 90 10 10 10
JBR 48 71 47 66 / 70 10 10 10
TUP 55 73 45 70 / 90 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 530 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-190030- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 530 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH REGION TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING A SECONDARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SUSTAINED WINDS NEARING 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEARING 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 634 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ARZ018-026-027-MOZ113-180015- CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-POINSETT AR-DUNKLIN MO- 634 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR... EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... NORTHEASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER JONESBORO AT 634 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...DUNKLIN...GREENE AND POINSETT COUNTIES... INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BAY...BROOKLAND...CARAWAY...CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...JONESBORO...LAKE CITY...MONETTE...PARAGOULD AND TRUMANN...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. .A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA. && LAT...LON 3605 9066 3610 9028 3562 9029 3562 9079 TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 243DEG 42KT 3585 9063
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
ARZ027-035-048-180030-
CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
640 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR...
CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF FAIR OAKS AT 640 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
PEOPLE IN CROSS...POINSETT AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR HARRISBURG...PARKIN...VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK AND
WYNNE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.
&&
LAT...LON 3562 9089 3562 9044 3544 9049 3544 9050
3540 9050 3504 9059 3504 9105 3519 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 247DEG 39KT 3521 9098SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
ARZ009-018-MOZ113-180030-
CLAY AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
641 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR...
EASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF RECTOR AT 641 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
PEOPLE IN CLAY...DUNKLIN AND GREENE COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR CAMPBELL...CHALK BLUFF NATURAL AREA...KENNETT...MALDEN...
MARMADUKE...PIGGOTT...RECTOR AND SENATH...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.
.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.
&&
LAT...LON 3663 8996 3613 8996 3606 9055 3650 9036
3650 9023 3654 9022 3655 9019 3659 9019
3664 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 245DEG 38KT 3634 9031SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 646 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ARZ028-MOZ115-TNZ019-048-180030- MISSISSIPPI AR-PEMISCOT MO-DYER TN-LAUDERDALE TN- 646 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR... NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHEASTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... NORTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER ASHPORT AT 647 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. PEOPLE IN DYER...LAUDERDALE...MISSISSIPPI AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES... INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR DYERSBURG AND RIPLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES CHISHOLM LAKE. .A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA. && LAT...LON 3619 8925 3570 8950 3570 8995 3618 8973 TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 223DEG 41KT 3583 8976
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
711 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
ARZ049-058-180045-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS AR-
711 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR...
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF WATKINS CORNER AT 711 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
PEOPLE IN LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
MARIANNA...MARVELL AND WEST HELENA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.
&&
LAT...LON 3474 9105 3489 9066 3453 9064 3436 9100
3446 9101 3447 9106
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 223DEG 30KT 3449 9100SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 714 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ARZ026-028-MOZ113-115-180045- CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO- 714 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR... EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CARAWAY AT 714 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...DUNKLIN...MISSISSIPPI AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES... INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BLYTHEVILLE...CARAWAY...GOSNELL... LEACHVILLE...MANILA...SENATH AND STEELE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BIG LAKE. .A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA. && LAT...LON 3622 8971 3572 8996 3571 9040 3620 9020 TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 251DEG 39KT 3582 9019
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:41 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight line winds knocked trees down on County Road 300 near Hornor.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, October 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 418140.