Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, May 7, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
312 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 19Z SHOWS A HEALTHY CU FIELD ACROSS THE
CWA AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHER FEATURES. ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE MCS MOVING THROUGH NE LA AND SOUTHERN MS. THIS LINE OF STORMS
HELPED KICK OFF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLIER IN THE DAY...THIS
OUTFLOW HAS SINCE TRAVELED SOUTH AND WEST AND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
FROM ASHDOWN AR TO HOMER LA TO SOUTH OF MONROE LA. OTHER INTERESTING
FEATURES INCLUDE TWO NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BOUNDARIES LOCATED FROM
ROUGHLY TEXARKANA TO NACOGDOCHES. WHERE THESE TWO DIFFERENT SETS
OF BOUNDARIES HAVE INTERSECTED...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. THE
AREAS OF INTEREST SO FAR HAVE BEEN ALONG A LINE FROM IDABEL OK TO
HOPE AR AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO HOMER AND MONROE LA. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRIMARILY BE CAPABLE
OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THAT. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABSENT FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK UNTIL OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SW US. IT WILL BEGIN AS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA AND THEN OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES
THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS UPPER LOW AND SURFACE FRONT WILL
BE BEST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING BY
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHS
HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL.
/20/

&&

.AVIATION...
REALLY STARTING TO DESTABILIZE WITH 18Z TEMPS NEARING 90 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTN. THE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN REMAIN A
NEARLY STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESIDING FROM EAST OF TXK AND
SOUTH OF ELD TO NEAR THE MLU TERMINAL. STORMS ARE FIRING NEAR THE
MLU TERMINAL AS WE SPEAK. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE KSHV TERMINAL
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT INDICATED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS IS ALL
HANDLED IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE WITH TEMPO TSRA AT KMLU/KELD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND VCTS/TEMPO TSRA AT
THE KSHV TERMINAL FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...STARTING TO SEE SOME MODERATE CU GOING UP ALONG THE TRUE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH AS OF 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A DEQ/CRS/TPL
LINE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SHORT TERM PROGS INCLUDING HIGH RES PROGS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE DELAYED MENTION OF TSRA AT TXK/TYR/GGG
TERMINALS UNTIL 23Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATER INITIATION.

WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PICK UP SPEED LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE
PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY INTO THE DAY WITH POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION A
PRETTY GOOD BET. HAVE GONE WITH VCTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  81  63  79  56 /  50  50  40  20  10
MLU  68  84  63  80  54 /  50  50  50  30  10
DEQ  64  77  55  79  49 /  30  30  20  10  10
TXK  66  78  59  79  53 /  50  50  30  20  10
ELD  65  78  59  79  50 /  50  50  30  20  10
TYR  67  77  60  78  55 /  50  50  40  20  10
GGG  68  79  61  78  53 /  50  50  40  20  10
LFK  70  83  64  80  57 /  40  50  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1136 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-081200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1136 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE SLOW TO MOVE COLD FRONT REMAINS
NEAR THE AREA. ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
130 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

LAZ001-002-071930-
BOSSIER-CADDO-
130 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CADDO AND BOSSIER
PARISHES...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS
OF CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES IN FAR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR OVER NORTH LOUISIANA.

A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...WITH
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
TO BE OUTDOORS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...IT IS TIME TO MOVE INDOORS. IF
A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION...THEN ITS TIME TO TAKE
SHELTER.

03