Winter Weather in Arkansas, December 28, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
303 PM CST FRI DEC 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE FIRST PERIOD POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR. THEN A TEMP FORECAST AND OVERALL
DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE
LIQUID WITH A LOW CHANCE OF WINTER WEATHER.

PRECIP...MAINLY RAIN...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT FRZ DRZ OR FRZ RAIN WAS
SEEN THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MOST OF THE RAIN HAS LIFTED NE AND THINNED...WHILE SOME
LIGHT SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED IN NE AR. OVER OK THE UPPER TROUGH
WAS DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER AR LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS IN
THE 30S TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A LOW OVER EASTERN LA...WHILE
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO FAR WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER AR...WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS
NE AND UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS IT OUT...THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF WINTER WEATHER OVER NORTHERN TO N CENTRAL AR AS TEMPS
LOWER TO NEAR TO BELOW FRZ. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SNOW ON BACK
SIDE OF DEFORMATION ZONE AS IT LIFTS OUT OF AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AS STATED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS OUT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN AS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
OVERALL AMOUNTS OF ANY WINTER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DUE TO THE ON GOING POWER OUTAGES AND SNOW AND
ICE ON THE GROUND. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING PRECIP
EAST OF AR BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...DRY
BUT CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     23  37  20  45 /  40   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         27  40  22  51 /  20   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       22  37  21  46 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    23  39  22  49 /  20   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  28  39  24  46 /  30   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     30  38  25  49 /  20   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      21  40  17  48 /  20   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  24  38  21  45 /  20   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        25  38  22  44 /  40   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     29  37  25  47 /  30   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   23  40  18  48 /  20   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         26  36  20  44 /  40   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      27  37  26  45 /  40   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
440 PM CST FRI DEC 28 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
440 PM CST FRI DEC 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THIS
EVENING. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL GET LESS THAN AN INCH...THERE COULD
BE AN INCH OR TWO TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER IN ABOUT THE NORTHERN
TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF
MENA...MOUNT IDA...CONWAY AND AUGUSTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. MAINLY A COLD RAIN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH AT BOTH THE ONSET AND CONCLUSION OF THIS EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/51/46