Wildfire in Arkansas, December 13 to 21, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
909 PM CST THU DEC 13 2012

.UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THESE HIGH...MAINLY THIN...CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ARKANSAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. MODELS INDICATE A
SLOWER EASTWARD RAIN PROGRESSION FRIDAY SO ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
TIMING BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT OF DRY
AIR ALOFT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST THU DEC 13 2012/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADUAL
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED AGAIN NEAR AIRFIELDS WITH
WATER NEAR THEM...ESPECIALLY AT KHOT...KLIT AND KADF. WINDS
OVERNIGHT LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE. WINDS ON FRIDAY SE TO S 5 TO 15
KNOTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU DEC 13 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A COLD NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
30S COMMON AND EVEN SOME READINGS IN THE 20S STILL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES AT ELEVATED LOCATIONS OUT WEST MAY NOT FALL PAST THE
UPPER 30S HOWEVER. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DUE TO
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDS FROM
DYING OFF AND THUS THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO LOW.

MUCH OF TOMORROW WILL BE DRY. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY MIX THE LOW LEVELS FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST OUT WEST.
HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
LATE EVENING. THESE SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
AS THE ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID/LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD
END SOMEWHAT QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT...BUT DID LEAVE SOME LINGERING
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AS MODELS SHOW THE FRONT HANGING UP TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENHANCING
SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT FALL DRAMATICALLY AS
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL LAG BEHIND A BIT. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A MIX OF CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A STORM SYSTEM EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO THE GULF COAST. IT APPEARS
THE FRONT WILL STALL...WITH A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOISTURE/RAIN BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. FOR THE
MOST PART...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BYPASS ARKANSAS
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE HIGH WILL DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AND SOME WARMING IN THE FORECAST. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND WILL DRAG ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE NOT MUCH
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  56  46  64 /   0  10  60  50
CAMDEN AR         29  59  47  69 /   0  20  60  60
HARRISON AR       32  56  46  65 /   0  50  60  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  57  48  67 /   0  20  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  57  47  67 /   0  20  60  50
MONTICELLO AR     32  59  50  67 /   0  10  60  60
MOUNT IDA AR      28  57  49  68 /   0  30  60  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  30  54  44  66 /   0  30  60  30
NEWPORT AR        31  56  46  63 /   0  10  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     31  58  47  67 /   0  10  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  55  46  67 /   0  30  60  30
SEARCY AR         28  55  44  63 /   0  10  60  50
STUTTGART AR      31  57  47  65 /   0  10  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST THU DEC 13 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
400 PM CST THU DEC 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF
WATER AND IN OUTLYING AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS...PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAY FORM
IN THESE AREAS. THOUGH VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED...THE FOG MAY DEPOSIT A THIN LAYER OF ICE ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS. THIS MAY CAUSE TRAFFIC
PROBLEMS. IF TRAVELING FRIDAY MORNING...USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN
IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY FOG...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.

SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL PICK UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE ABOVE FREEZING LESSENING THE IMPACTS OF ANY LINGERING FOG
IN THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LATE FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG...HOWEVER NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL COME TO AN END ON SATURDAY FOR
MUCH OF ARKANSAS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION STILL EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND BORDERLINE FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO REMAIN AS LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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