Wildfire in Arkansas, August 5 to 8, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.AVIATION...05/18Z TAF CYCLE

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS LOCATED ACRS NRN AR AT MIDDAY...WITH A
DECAYING OUTFLOW BNDRY OVR CNTRL AR. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTN
AND THIS EVENING WL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALONG THE FNT AS IT MOVES
SLOLY SWD. SHORT TERM MODELS INDC SCTD SHRA/TSRA FORMING ARND MID
TO LATE AFTN ACRS CNTRL AR. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH TEMPO GROUPS AND OPTED WITH VCTS. OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER STORMS...
VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS ACRS NRN AR THIS AFTN COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CIGS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE WORKING INTO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ALONG THE
LOUISIANA BORDER BY DAWN MONDAY.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH STORMS REFIRING THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STORMS WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN CONCERN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH RAPID COOLING OVERHEAD LEADING TO LARGE
HAIL IN SOME STORMS.

PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE EXITING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

TEMPERATURES MAY STAY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYTIME READINGS WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS...AND IT WILL BE MORE
COMFORTABLE AT NIGHT. HOT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN THE ROCKIES...AND WILL STAY THERE HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
ARKANSAS AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...NORTH TO SOUTH. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 95 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH TO EXTREME TODAY DUE TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE OVER MOST
COUNTIES OF ARKANSAS AND BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE BY LATE
MONDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OVER ARKANSAS. SMALL
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

THE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH TO EXTREME THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK. RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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