Damaging Wind in Texas, August 5, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS GIVEN NORTH TEXAS THE SIZZLING TEMPERATURES
THE PAST WEEK CONTINUES RETROGRADING WEST TOWARD COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WE HAVE RAISED TO CHANCE POPS A FEW AREAS...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN HIT AND MISS WITH NOT EVERYONE SEEING THE RAINFALL.
MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO
SURGE NORTH TOWARD AREAS SOUTH OF A LAMPASAS...MEXIA...CENTERVILLE
LINE. MORE MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST NEAR THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH...THUS THE STRONGER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE RED RIVER. A MORE MOIST ADIABATIC...TROPICAL AIRMASS EXISTS
FURTHER SOUTH. THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE GUN AS
MUCH WITH REGARD TO THE VERY GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AS FURTHER
NORTH WOULD BE.

WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND THE METROPLEX BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
INFLUENCES OF STORM OUTFLOW. IF COVERAGE OF STORMS DOES NOT OCCUR
AS EXPECTED...THEN THIS BOUNDARY WOULD REMAIN FURTHER NORTH MOST
LIKELY. NEVERTHELESS...THE FRONT AND THE PERSISTENT AND DIFFLUENT
NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-LATE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND COULD SERVE AS MORE
FOCUS FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT OUR MOISTURE WILL BE LATE WEEK
BEFORE ENTERING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS...CORSICANA...
CAMERON LINE THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
DEW PTS AND HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND A 100 DEGREES AND
HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AT 106 DEGREES.

IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER HIGH EXPANDS BACK EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH POSSIBLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO THE AREA.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE A WEST TRACK INTO MEXICO AND
IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  79 103  79 /  30  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              77 102  77 102  78 /  20  20  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             75  98  73 100  74 /  40  20  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            76 101  76 103  77 /  30  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  76 102  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 102  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           78 100  75 101  77 /  30  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         78 100  77 101  77 /  20  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            75 100  74 102  76 /  20  20  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76 101  73 102  77 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>106-
118>121-133-134-145-159.

HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
TXZ107-122-123-135- 146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

05/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061315-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
345 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO WACO AND CAMERON LINE UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO MARLIN AND CENTERVILLE LINE. THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A CANTON TO DFW AND DECATUR LINE. AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND/OR
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS...TO CORSICANA...TO CAMERON
LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.